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Prediction markets for of Government Communications

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.34%chance

7433886

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1242

805

This is a solution to alignment.

Jul 26, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.3%chance

4429186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2045

489

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.95%chance

298500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7084

141

Will Canada's "Online News Act" (bill C-18) be amended or repealed by 2027?

Aug 10, 3:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

79.95%chance

73854

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

972

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

7.05%chance

213324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3630

275

Will Germany give up paper correspondence before the technological singularity happens?

May 22, 10:42 AMOct 29, 9:59 PM

17.59%chance

172707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2165

462

Will the US send more patriot air defense systems to Ukraine before September 30, 2025?

Jun 26, 6:03 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

83.99%chance

212647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2291

437

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

37.86%chance

292454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

781

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.53%chance

25694

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

900

Will a Cybertruck be reported to be involved in any FSD-related fatality by the end of 2025?

Aug 22, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.99%chance

9419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

US Federal Gov't ports their physical mail addresses to something online by mid 2031

Mar 8, 4:48 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

44.14%chance

2125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

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