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Prediction markets for of Institutional Management

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

73.18%chance

413662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1181

828

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

292009

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

29

21

17

17

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

1053

When will Russia's offensive in Ukraine end?

Dec 30, 7:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

141036

OptionProbability

After 2025

December 2025

November 2025

October 2025

September 2025

August 2025

January 2025

February 2025

March 2025

April 2025

May 2025

June 2025

July 2025

60

10

9

7

6

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?

Nov 15, 1:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

10916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will The S&P 500 Close above 6,500 on December 31st, 2025?

Jan 25, 7:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.59%chance

21729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

132

76

After a superintelligent AI is created, how long will it take for the first Drexlerian assembler to be developed?

Dec 31, 9:55 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

10432

OptionProbability

181-365 days

731+ days

366-730 days

less than one day

1-7 days

8-31 days

32-90 days

91-180 days

Other

51

30

9

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will the 2028 Annual C++ Survey cite "managing dependencies" or "packages" as one of the communities' main pain points?

Mar 6, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.22%chance

8265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

410

159

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Manifold have a central bank and I am chairman by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.16%chance

5203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Manifold have a central bank and banking apparatus by 2030?

Jun 16, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.03%chance

7137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

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