of International Development News

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Apr 21, 8:36 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.51%chance

317104503

OptionVotes

YES

1173

837

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

22945

4656

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

YES

1927

1123

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

Dec 17, 4:02 AMJul 5, 3:59 AM

5011008

OptionProbability

Department of Education

Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

Federal Statistical Agencies

Freddie Mac

National Weather Service

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Internal Revenue Service

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

National Institutes of Health

Ginnie Mae

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

National Park Service (NPS)

Fannie Mae

Small Business Administration

Federal Bureau of Investigations

The Supreme Court

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

US Postal Service

Amtrak

100

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

YES

1846

1470

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92178

OptionProbability

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

100

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.84%chance

331440

OptionVotes

YES

2655

1053

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

YES

2198

1820

NSF awards a CAREER grant this year?

May 13, 9:06 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

44.14%chance

4391

OptionVotes

YES

1125

889

Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026?

Sep 30, 9:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.45%chance

7271

OptionVotes

YES

229

Will South Park season 27 criticize Israel or the United States' support for Israel?

Apr 2, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.69%chance

10249

OptionVotes

YES

1006

994

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

Feb 3, 10:59 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.33%chance

6135

OptionVotes

YES

235

of International Development News

Prediction markets for of International Development

Prediction markets for of International Development

Prediction markets for of International Development

Will the majority of new cars sold worldwide be electric before the end of 2030?

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

NSF awards a CAREER grant this year?

Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026?

Will South Park season 27 criticize Israel or the United States' support for Israel?

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of an international project?

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