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Prediction markets for of State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

30.12%chance

150159492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

713

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

2.74%chance

4599417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59606

1678

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.47%chance

6078418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

41852

2510

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

16173011

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

28

27

12

5

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.42%chance

7944401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11671

6645

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.91%chance

9443785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

921

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

6.6%chance

2331641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37615

2659

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.6%chance

1313626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10535

9447

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

184449

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

51

48

1

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

142880

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

64

52

40

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

32771

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

75

24

1

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