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Prediction markets for of State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

37.4%chance

146153395

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

831

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

15972283

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

33

23

6

5

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

916

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.72%chance

7134488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11522

6683

Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.19%chance

4133523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15810

6425

Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?

Dec 14, 1:06 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

15.31%chance

2629485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23517

4252

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

7.97%chance

2026245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33975

2943

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6016181

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

47

43

7

4

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.6%chance

1313626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10535

9447

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

163999

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

54

44

1

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

31771

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

70

28

2

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.71%chance

121255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10481

9520

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