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Prediction markets for of State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

225114087

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Vice President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Other

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

19

14

12

11

10

6

6

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

2.09%chance

2868654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68515

1461

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

18.41%chance

9048869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12750

6385

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

787

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7021658

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

65

27

5

3

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.3%chance

1614186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11095

8929

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

58053

OptionProbability

Kansas

Missouri

Other

68

32

0

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

287303

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

57

42

1

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

Who will be elected vice president of the United States in 2028?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMNov 8, 12:00 PM

150

OptionProbability

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio

Jon Ossoff

Pete Buttigieg

Roy Cooper

Gretchen Whitmer

Andy Beshear

Raphael Warnock

James Talarico

Wes Moore

Josh Shapiro

Elissa Slotkin

Donald Trump Jr.

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Tucker Carlson

50

8

8

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

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