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Prediction markets for of State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

27.9%chance

155163363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

679

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

210106266

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

24

18

14

13

6

5

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

17.86%chance

8447650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13082

6312

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9945279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

800

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

4.33%chance

2541018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

47011

2129

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6520838

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

58

32

6

4

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.3%chance

1614186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11095

8929

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

57053

OptionProbability

Kansas

Missouri

Other

62

37

0

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

266885

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

59

40

1

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

166460

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

54

19

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

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