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Prediction markets for of State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

25.29%chance

155163135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1655

638

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

205104698

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York Congresswoman)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House)

Ro Khanna (California Congressman)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

26

20

13

13

5

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.12%chance

8245799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11819

6607

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9845254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

800

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

4.56%chance

2539768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45761

2187

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6520838

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

58

32

6

4

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.06%chance

1514136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11045

8973

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

266756

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

58

41

1

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

56553

OptionProbability

Kansas

Missouri

Other

59

40

0

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163560

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

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