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Prediction markets for of State

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

28.32%chance

152161499

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

686

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

16273511

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

27

26

15

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.63%chance

7944509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11563

6673

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.82%chance

9543935

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

920

Will it become illegal to move >$50K/year out of the United States?

Apr 28, 7:34 PMJan 1, 8:33 PM

5%chance

2437618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43611

2295

At end of year 2026, how difficult will it be to obtain feminizing HRT as an adult in blue states?

Jul 14, 5:30 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6216685

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Virtually impossible

52

38

6

4

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.06%chance

1514136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11045

8973

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

81.93%chance

636318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1575

790

Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

Jun 26, 8:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

47.84%chance

125581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10661

9352

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

44553

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

56

43

1

What will be the party of the next President of the United States?

Oct 15, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

184449

OptionProbability

Democrat

Republican

Other

51

48

1

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason?

Nov 9, 5:02 AMJan 2, 5:01 AM

163500

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2029

Jan 1, 2028

Jan 1, 2027

65

57

39

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