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Prediction markets for of World

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18771930

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Apple

Alphabet

Tesla

Other

OpenAI

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Amazon

Anthropic

TSMC

Broadcom

Meta

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

SpaceX

ASML

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

24

15

14

8

8

8

5

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

916

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.14%chance

6116884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2008

498

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.07%chance

18312142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3887

1744

What will be the most valuable company in the world at the end of 2030?

Dec 14, 6:47 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5111793

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Apple

Other

Alphabet (Google)

Tesla

Strategy (MSTR)

Amazon

Meta (Facebook)

OpenAI

Saudi Aramco

Berkshire Hathaway

SpaceX

TSMC

Tencent

ByteDance

ASML

Samsung

Intel

Anthropic

Eli Lilly

24

20

18

10

6

4

4

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

348890

OptionProbability

Bitcoin + AI

AI + Medicine

Bitcoin + XR

AI + Robotics

Fintech + AI

AI + Internet

AI + Physics

AI + VR

XR + AI

BCI + Internet

Haptics + BCI

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

BCI + Remote sensing

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

AI+Blockchain

BCI + Dating Apps

Vertical farming + Solar

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

81

62

60

59

52

40

32

30

24

23

17

15

14

9

8

5

5

5

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

437735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.34%chance

576621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

938

Who will win the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?

Jul 15, 11:30 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

63233

OptionProbability

Other

Gen. G

63

37

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will more than 0.001% of the world population be incarcerated in 2070?

Jan 2, 4:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

68.06%chance

12522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

989

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