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Prediction markets for Offer for Sale

IPOs in 2026?

Dec 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

368291

OptionProbability

Once Upon a Farm

SpaceX

Cerebras

Discord

Databricks

Anthropic

Anduril

Deel

OpenAI

Celonis

Applied Intuition

Vanta

Ramp

Glean

Ripple Labs

Mistral AI

Stripe

Brex

Remote

Fannie Mae

Freddie Mac

xAI

100

90

88

75

40

39

35

35

34

27

24

23

21

20

17

17

15

14

11

10

10

3

Will FTX raise a down round before the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 12:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

277959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3103

597

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.72%chance

192798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2886

346

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM

53.46%chance

191008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

973

Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Jan 23, 6:04 PMJan 3, 11:59 PM

34.99%chance

12878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.22%chance

14858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1271

787

Will Nectome preserve at least one human by the end of 2027?

Mar 18, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.23%chance

5740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

682

Will anyone buy my "Best Debtor Manifest 2025" trophy?

Oct 1, 12:45 AMApr 20, 10:59 PM

6.01%chance

7335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

397

25

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?

Oct 17, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

70

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

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