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Office of Management News

    Prediction markets for Office of Management

    What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

    Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM
    8917428

    OptionProbability

    Attorney General: Pam Bondi

    Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

    Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

    Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

    Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

    Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

    Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

    Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

    Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

    Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

    Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

    Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

    Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

    Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

    United States Trade Representative: James Greer

    Ambassador to the United Nations: Mike Waltz

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

    Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

    Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

    Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

    Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

    Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

    President: Donald Trump

    Vice President: JD Vance

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    86

    84

    62

    58

    53

    48

    35

    34

    29

    29

    27

    27

    27

    24

    22

    22

    22

    21

    16

    10

    4

    Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

    Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
    4.36%chance
    2811598

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    8972

    356

    Former president Biden dead in 2026?

    Jan 10, 6:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4%chance
    215098

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    4694

    1274

    Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

    Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    414895

    OptionProbability

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

    John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

    Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    99

    93

    92

    92

    91

    91

    90

    87

    84

    82

    82

    78

    60

    59

    59

    54

    50

    45

    31

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?

    Aug 1, 2:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    18.53%chance
    264180

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2097

    477

    How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?

    Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    303298

    OptionProbability

    21-25

    16-20

    11-15

    26-30

    31-35

    Other

    36-40

    6-10

    1-5

    41-45

    32

    18

    12

    12

    10

    8

    4

    2

    1

    1

    Was Epstein a Russian asset?

    Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM
    12.2%chance
    242577

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2683

    373

    Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

    Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    72.71%chance
    332036

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1534

    660

    Will Joe Biden die this year?

    Mar 31, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    3.35%chance
    201338

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    537

    19

    Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

    Oct 16, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    24.5%chance
    7975

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1283

    101

    Will Adam Schiff go to prison before 2030?

    Oct 15, 7:30 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM
    13.41%chance
    240

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    140

    92

    Who will be the next Chairman of Tata Sons?

    Sep 6, 11:12 AMFeb 20, 6:29 PM
    122

    OptionProbability

    T V Narendran (Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, Tata Steel)

    Saurabh Agrawal (Executive Director & Group Chief Financial Officer, Tata Sons)

    Other

    Ashish Chauhan (Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, National Stock Exchange of India)

    32

    24

    24

    19

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