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Prediction markets for Office of Policy Planning

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.97%chance

5010404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1767

784

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

1.89%chance

643044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

720

14

is Hegseth cutting "woke" top brass the first step in a planned Coup d'état?

Oct 1, 3:16 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

8.5%chance

62282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3282

305

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

101231

OptionProbability

40 - 49.9

50 - 59.9

30 - 39.9

Above 60

Below 20

20 - 29.9

78

14

4

2

1

1

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

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