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Prediction markets for Office of Policy Planning

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

5.7%chance

643008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

407

25

Will Mike Waltz be confirmed as Ambassador to the United Nations?

May 6, 8:16 PMDec 31, 9:14 PM

86.04%chance

212273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2482

403

When will I judge that Trump's second term policies have a tangible, involuntary impact on my life?

Mar 14, 4:13 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

231974

OptionProbability

After Trump's term ends or not at all

In 2025

In 2026

In 2027

In 2028 or 2029 before Trump's term ends

31

30

21

13

5

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

10918

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51%chance

759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

143

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