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10 months ago

How will Trump leave office?

Mar 13, 8:47 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

647333285

OptionProbability

At the end of his term in 2029.

He will die before the end of his term.

He will be impeached, tried in the Senate, and removed before the end of his term.

He will resign (impeached or not) before the end of his term.

He will be removed by a 25th Amendment action before the end of his term.

The 22nd Amendment will not be repealed, but he will remain in power through unconstitutional means after January 21, 2029

The 22nd Amendment will be repealed and he will win re-election to a third term.

He will be overthrown in a violent coup (military or otherwise) and forced out of office. (If this happens, related answers that may occur like death and resignation will resolve NO).

Other

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Jan 29, 5:52 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

53147594

OptionProbability

Never.

2027

2028

2025

2026

2029

Sometime after 2029

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Jul 4, 7:02 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

1.28%chance

6396543

OptionVotes

YES

90079

6480

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

Jun 2, 11:07 PMJan 20, 11:44 PM

13%chance

25286774

OptionVotes

YES

2589

387

When will Trump leave office as President?

Nov 8, 2:56 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4034282

OptionProbability

2029 or later

2026

2027

2028

2025

Will Trump get a third term in office?

Jan 21, 7:45 PMJan 29, 5:59 AM

4.89%chance

8226876

OptionVotes

YES

4410

227

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Jul 11, 5:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13%chance

7421692

OptionVotes

YES

4424

2065

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Jan 18, 11:47 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

30.29%chance

10218481

OptionVotes

YES

2249

1757

Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?

Feb 4, 5:35 PMAug 2, 3:59 AM

3.85%chance

1817468

OptionVotes

YES

15345

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.41%chance

5012262

OptionVotes

YES

2960

1439

Will the next president die while in office?

Aug 2, 5:44 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

365245

OptionVotes

YES

1417

894

Before 2028, will over 50 Anthropic employees show up in office in cat ears?

Jun 18, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.94%chance

19934

OptionVotes

YES

207

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How will Trump leave office?

In what year will Trump be impeached AND removed from office?

Will it come to light that Joe Biden used a body double while in presidential office or on the campaign trail?

Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?

When will Trump leave office as President?

Will Trump get a third term in office?

If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?

Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?

Will Brazilian ineligibility laws be revised to allow Bolsonaro to run for office in 2026?

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Will the next president die while in office?

Before 2028, will over 50 Anthropic employees show up in office in cat ears?

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