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Prediction markets for Official Trump Products

Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry

Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

98.97%chance

3119748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10655

120

Will the NWS stop providing weather forecasts before 2027?

Feb 4, 8:45 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.34%chance

2114853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8189

891

Donald Trump utilisera-t-il la bombe nucléaire contre l' Iran pour gagner la guerre ?

Apr 1, 11:36 AMApr 1, 11:35 AM

3.66%chance

61198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

513

19

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

When will the LCBO put American alcohol back on its shelves?

Dec 24, 12:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3630

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jan-Feb 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

2027 or later

39

24

10

8

8

8

1

1

Will Trump tariff Canada 100%

Jan 24, 2:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.97%chance

16613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

492

20

Which prongs of the "3-3-3" economic plan will the Trump administration achieve by the end of Q1, 2028?

Dec 16, 7:20 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

19436

OptionProbability

Increase domestic energy production by 3 million barrel of oil equivalents per day

Real GDP growth of 3% per annum

Reduce budget deficit to 3% of GDP

48

26

8

Who will be the next host to leave The Five?

Mar 31, 3:30 AMSep 30, 3:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

Harold Ford Jr.

Greg Gutfield

Dana Perino

Jesse Watters

Jessica Tarlov

35

16

16

16

16

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