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Finishes Virdian Forest before step 1073

Beats Brock before step 2381

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 8247

Beats Misty before step 9076

Defeats Surge before step 15266

Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 20426

Defeats Erika

Gets the lift key

Defeats Koga

Defeats Sabrina

Defeats Blaine

Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni

Gets HM03 (Surf) from the Safari Zone

Gets the lift key before step 20000

Gets HM02 (Fly)

Still in Celadon at 15,000 steps

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 50000

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 25000

Gets Silph Scope or defeats Erika before 30,000 steps

Gets Silph Scope

Gets a fourth badge before 35,000 steps

Gets HM03(Surf) or any fourth badge before 45,000 steps

Gets a bicycle

Defeats Silph Co Giovanni

Still in Saffron City at 35,000 steps

Still in Saffron City at 40,000 steps

Still in Saffron City at 50,000 steps

Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.

Still in Saffron City at 75,000 steps.

Picks up an item between steps 50,000-75,000

Stands next to the Key Card again (after step 63,000)

Stands next to the Key Card again (after step 66,000)

Stands next to the Card Key again (after step 73,300)

Defeats Silph Co Giovanni before step 90,000

Gets a fifth badge before 90,000 steps

Reaches a step count of 150,000

Gets a sixth badge before 98,400 steps

Reaches a step count of 200,000

Gets Gold Teeth from the Safari Zone

Reaches Cinnabar Island before traversing Seafoam Islands

Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni within 1000 steps of defeating Blaine (Giovanni victory music before step 205,060)

Finishes Pokemon Mansion

Walks through the northeastern B1F gate again (after step 132,000)

Blaze reaches level 80

Gets Gold Teeth before step 210,000

Digs before finishing the 1st boulder puzzle

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

DIGs a total of 50 times or more

BLAZE reaches level 90

Any pokemon other than BLAZE gains a level (after step 83,847)

Claude gets a sixth pokemon in his party.

Revives the Dome Fossil

Uses an item other than a ball in battle

Solves the 3rd boulder puzzle

Performs a swag boulder (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGK022LJ1do)

Gets HM05 (Flash)

Stores an item in the PC

Reaches a step count of 400,000

Reaches a step count of 300,000

Enters Seafoam Islands

BLAZE reaches level 100

Surfs in the Safari Zone

Solves the 1st boulder puzzle

Finishes Victory Road before step 300,000

Reaches a step count of 350,000

Defeats the champion

Gets Eevee

Catches Articuno/Moltres/Zapdos

Gets Hitmonlee

Gets Hitmonchan

Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone

Claude throws a Pokeball in Safari Zone

Defeats the champion before step 233,000

Solves the 2nd boulder puzzle

Catches Mew

Blacks out at least three times in Mt. Moon

Still in Celadon at 30,000 steps

Gets a fifth badge before 37,000 steps

Gets a fifth badge before 50,000 steps

Still in Saffron City at 100,000 steps

Leaves Saffron City without the card key

Visits Safari Zone before Koga's gym

Finds the Card Key before 75,000 steps

Interacts with the Key Card without picking it up

Stands next to the Card Key 5 more times (after step 73,300)

Gets a seventh badge before 115,000 steps

Gets HMO3(Surf) and the Golden Teeth in the same Safari Zone attempt

Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 100,000 steps

Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 97,500 steps

Finishes Pokemon Mansion before 110,000 steps

Finishes Pokemon Mansion faster than Silph Co. (before step 142963)

Finishes Pokemon Mansion before step 120,000

Finishes Pokemon Mansion before step 130,000

Finishes Pokemon Mansion while stream is offline

Optional paid subscription plan(s) for users

You earn mana if you add liquidity to someone else’s market (trader bonus, fees etc)

New type(s) of user badge

Anybody stays in Masters all 12 months

New market type

Manifest happens and >600 attendees

Mana-purchasable profile flair

Spoiler resolutions feature added

Mana Merch Shop sells Ṁ10M+

Subsidizers get bonuses or fees from trader activity (or a cut of such from creator's share)

New leagues division

Mentioned in NYT

manifold.markets/home changes to something other than Browse

Topics properly nest and show child topic markets

Active traders (daily 7d avg) >2000 at any point

Automatic house-provided subsidies

$10k+ mana sales in one day

ReReRePivot (a new method for real money launches)

A founder returns

@acc is active

Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned

manifold UI-based auto-resolutions options added

Raises $10M+ in external funding

Partner-esque program (re)launches

A mod permabanned

Someone loses Ṁ1M in a single market

3+ ManifestXs

New currency

Site completely offline for continuous 24h+

A previously banned user becomes a mod

House-mediated p2p loans

Manifold ad visible on TV in a stadium

Charity program returns and $100k+ donated

Acquired by another prediction market company

YES

YES

YES

nuclear powered transportation vehicle

PC with quantum computing capability

CPU with stock frequency 8GHz or above

Betavoltaic battery (Nuclear battery)

Neuralink-like implant (brain-computer-interface)

Solid State Battery EV

3.5/2.5 inch or M.2 form factor HDD or SSD with at least 1PB (petabyte) capacity

Grand Theft Auto 7

CPU with 200 or more physical cores

Fully offline LLM with performance exceeding the best existing GPT-4 variant

NO

Other

2029

2028

2026

YES

Pretraining data composition

Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

Offline policy learning RLHf

NO

NO