Offline News

Optional paid subscription plan(s) for users

You earn mana if you add liquidity to someone else’s market (trader bonus, fees etc)

New type(s) of user badge

Anybody stays in Masters all 12 months

New market type

Manifest happens and >600 attendees

Mana-purchasable profile flair

Spoiler resolutions feature added

Mana Merch Shop sells Ṁ10M+

Subsidizers get bonuses or fees from trader activity (or a cut of such from creator's share)

New leagues division

Topics properly nest and show child topic markets

Mentioned in NYT

Active traders (daily 7d avg) >2000 at any point

manifold.markets/home changes to something other than Browse

Automatic house-provided subsidies

$10k+ mana sales in one day

@acc is active

ReReRePivot (a new method for real money launches)

A founder returns

Someone loses Ṁ1M in a single market

manifold UI-based auto-resolutions options added

Top-10 user on profit/creator/referral leaderboard permabanned

Raises $10M+ in external funding

A mod permabanned

Partner-esque program (re)launches

3+ ManifestXs

A previously banned user becomes a mod

New currency

Manifold ad visible on TV in a stadium

Site completely offline for continuous 24h+

House-mediated p2p loans

Charity program returns and $100k+ donated

Acquired by another prediction market company

YES

YES

nuclear powered transportation vehicle

PC with quantum computing capability

CPU with stock frequency 8GHz or above

Betavoltaic battery (Nuclear battery)

Neuralink-like implant (brain-computer-interface)

Solid State Battery EV

3.5/2.5 inch or M.2 form factor HDD or SSD with at least 1PB (petabyte) capacity

Grand Theft Auto 7

Fully offline LLM with performance exceeding the best existing GPT-4 variant

Smart phone WITHOUT a charging port (no charging or wireless charging only)

YES

NO

YES

Other

2029

2028

2026

YES

Pretraining data composition

Doesn't use any scale.ai training data

Offline policy learning RLHf

NO

NO