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Prediction markets for Offset

Will GiveWell fund Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) for malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.79%chance

1964882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6128

4633

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?

Jul 5, 7:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

223199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

402

Will a major country achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2040?

Jun 12, 6:04 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.09%chance

321939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

924

Will a major country achieve complete carbon neutrality by 2040?

Jul 11, 7:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.83%chance

16892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

827

Will the number of time zones on Earth change by 2030?

Mar 17, 8:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.66%chance

24606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

932

Will Robinhood Gold cost more than $5/month before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.31%chance

8534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

341

90

Will the Brazilian Federal Government have a majority stake in Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais (CEMIG) before 2027?

Feb 6, 2:17 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

40.8%chance

6450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

Will a fully AI generated osu! beatmap make it to the ranked section by the end of 2025?

Sep 20, 6:06 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

39.5%chance

5371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

The next time the number of time zones on the Earth changes, will the number increase or decrease?

Mar 20, 5:20 AMMar 27, 6:59 AM

11222

OptionProbability

Number of time zones will decrease next.

Number of time zones will increase next.

74

26

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

67.47%chance

8119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Will the average estimation of carbon offsets from U.S. forests fall below 10% of emissions by 2028?

Aug 5, 3:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.12%chance

524

OptionVotes

NO

YES

485

484

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