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Prediction markets for OFS

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.36%chance

34552766296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10139

9450

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.42%chance

976741418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10003

9896

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.19%chance

315655506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2744

2381

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44%chance

593573884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3288

1364

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.31%chance

990553403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16145

11680

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

18.48%chance

898515424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2483

689

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53.85%chance

277452830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6206

2880

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

57.19%chance

193358760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

866

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

48.26%chance

252212038

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

981

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.62%chance

385193398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

841

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.89%chance

328176705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5396

4954

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

243170837

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

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