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Prediction markets for OFS

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.55%chance

301639715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2659

2584

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.78%chance

940538591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16043

11887

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

555496084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

20.64%chance

869484079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2301

733

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

45%chance

231391548

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6865

2234

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

28.88%chance

750333270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5934

3630

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

147221733

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

88

12

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

47%chance

242199053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

1010

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

239170459

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

61.39%chance

253131777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1262

794

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.4%chance

28490246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5301

4725

Spain's population end of 2026? [in MM]

Jan 11, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.81%chance

92180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5107

4983

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