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Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.86%chance

983744074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10719

9239

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.3%chance

500718759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16246

14400

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

322658469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

2288

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4007

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.28%chance

1007559653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17140

12691

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.39%chance

297534365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5410

4066

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

21.49%chance

907523247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2238

750

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

831515860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58238

10505

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

49.17%chance

254212415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1285

961

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.61%chance

363203865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5792

4778

Will Venezuelans be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 3, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

398199210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

How old will Bryan Johnson be when he dies of natural causes?

Jul 18, 9:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.9%chance

244171107

OptionProbability

NO

YES

4793

4747

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