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Prediction markets for OFS

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.96%chance

34302735634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12785

7657

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.54%chance

465679880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17813

9130

Who will be elected mayor of New York City in 2025?

Jul 16, 5:26 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

878672069

OptionProbability

Zohran Mamdani

Andrew Cuomo

Eric Adams

Brad Lander

Curtis Sliwa

Andrew Yang

Other

Scott Stringer

Zellnor Myrie

invalid

Jumaane Williams

Jessica Ramos

Letitia James

Michael Blake

Joseph Borelli

John Catsimatidis

Alicia Glen

Christine Quinn

Jessica tisch

Adrienne Adams

Whitney Tilson

Jim Walden

85

7

4

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.34%chance

288659172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25803

5862

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.87%chance

947615089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10712

9233

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

128566018

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

34

32

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.99%chance

874488045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16267

11413

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

796429324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34777

14340

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

56%chance

177212945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6050

3063

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?

Apr 3, 6:33 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

52%chance

220180013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

897

What party will hold the House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms

Dec 12, 2:00 PMNov 15, 4:59 AM

94107393

OptionProbability

Democrats

Republicans

75

25

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