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Top stories

Adrien Rabiot Excluded From Olympique de Marseille After Altercation; Rowe Leaves, De Zerbi Hopes for Return, Tottenham Interested

Adrien Rabiot Excluded From Olympique de Marseille After Altercation; Rowe Leaves, De Zerbi Hopes for Return, Tottenham Interested

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for OM

Did Ilhan Omar marry her brother?

Oct 22, 9:06 PMDec 31, 10:02 PM

34.04%chance

313734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1392

718

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12045

8363

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

55.17%chance

52059

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10149

9814

Will Ilhan Omar lose her US citizenship by the end of 2027?

Oct 16, 12:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.72%chance

151841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2315

432

OmniZherka vs BurkaZherka (permanent)

Apr 9, 11:30 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

46%chance

191487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

101

Will the federal government bring a criminal or civil case against Ilhan Omar over her immigration history by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

141296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will a federal court filing by the US gov allege that Ilhan Omar's ex-husband is her biological sibling, by EOY 2027?

Oct 22, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.46%chance

131236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

841

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.8%chance

61225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2225

449

Will a public DNA verification, if conducted, prove that Ahmed Nur Said Elmi is Ilhan Omar's brother?

Oct 23, 6:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.59%chance

13665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

826

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

41%chance

3224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Will "Omniscaling to MNIST" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Mar 27, 7:36 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.59%chance

2205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

970

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.39%chance

4149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

852

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