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Top stories

Adrien Rabiot Excluded From Olympique de Marseille After Altercation; Rowe Leaves, De Zerbi Hopes for Return, Tottenham Interested

Adrien Rabiot Excluded From Olympique de Marseille After Altercation; Rowe Leaves, De Zerbi Hopes for Return, Tottenham Interested

Authors

8

4 months ago

Prediction markets for OM

OmniZherka vs BurkaZherka (permanent)

Apr 9, 11:30 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

46%chance

191487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

101

Will GPT-5.2 Achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 40%?

Dec 6, 7:33 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

40.13%chance

3450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

819

Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:36 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

26.38%chance

9265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

144

Will Saudi Arabia invade Yemen or Oman by the end of 2027?

Jun 23, 6:11 AMDec 31, 7:11 AM

32.75%chance

6259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?

Nov 23, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

2150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Will "Omelas Is Perfectly Misread" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 3, 10:21 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.39%chance

4149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

852

Will omega-6 be listed separately on food labels in the US by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:18 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

45.85%chance

2111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

920

If Trump is elected in 2024, will omega-6 be listed on US food labels by 2030?

Oct 28, 1:23 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

39.02%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will Feng Timo have a OMICm age >10 years younger than her chronological age?

Nov 10, 7:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.02%chance

223

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

Will the new EU omnibus be passed by the European Parliament?

Jun 12, 5:14 PMDec 31, 6:12 PM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

Will Guido Putignano win the Ordine al Merito della Repubblica Italiana (OMRI) by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:43 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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