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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5223

5020

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.3%chance

472128590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11108

10626

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

17625305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11985

9054

Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?

Aug 20, 10:09 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

28%chance

3320202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6387

4741

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.78%chance

2412263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17884

5607

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.51%chance

257828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12918

7753

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.55%chance

234541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10073

9882

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.86%chance

193027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11784

8486

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.42%chance

12860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10622

9739

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