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Prediction markets for On Holding

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

25.33%chance

11415508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1992

610

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

88.63%chance

436111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

255

Will Argentina hold presidential elections on schedule in 2027?

Nov 20, 3:13 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

86.02%chance

395158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1432

874

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.71%chance

373527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2659

684

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Feb 26, 8:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.87%chance

52165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2393

418

Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.36%chance

221775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

907

Will Epic vs Google hold up on appeal?

Dec 12, 11:39 AMDec 20, 4:59 AM

84.86%chance

201254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1714

801

Will Slovenia hold a referendum on NATO membership or military expenditure by the end of April 2026?

Jul 10, 2:35 PMApr 30, 10:00 PM

1.32%chance

5856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

867

12

Will Australia hold a referendum on whether to retain the monarchy before 2030?

Feb 29, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.42%chance

8538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

132

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

120th Congress holds hearings or investigations on Trump-Epstein connections?

Jul 17, 11:13 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

58%chance

455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

85

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