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Prediction markets for On Holding

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

24.52%chance

11215100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2033

597

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

88.63%chance

436111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

255

Will Argentina hold presidential elections on schedule in 2027?

Nov 20, 3:13 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

86.02%chance

395158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1432

874

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.71%chance

373527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2659

684

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Feb 26, 8:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.87%chance

52165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2393

418

Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.36%chance

221775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

907

Will Epic vs Google hold up on appeal?

Dec 12, 11:39 AMDec 20, 4:59 AM

86%chance

201136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1833

781

Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?

Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

16826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

6.83%chance

11771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

717

111

Will Australia hold a referendum on whether to retain the monarchy before 2030?

Feb 29, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.42%chance

8538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

132

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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