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Prediction markets for On Holding

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

23.47%chance

11615920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2089

579

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

93.7%chance

467787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3551

176

Will Argentina hold presidential elections on schedule in 2027?

Nov 20, 3:13 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

78.63%chance

455839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

974

954

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.8%chance

425200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2904

662

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Feb 26, 8:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.87%chance

52165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2393

418

Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.9%chance

241907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1254

870

Will Non-Republicans hold at least 53% of House seats on any day by July 27, 2027? (7/27/27)

Jul 28, 2:02 PMJul 26, 11:59 PM

65.73%chance

7577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1385

722

Will Moldova hold a referendum on unification with Romania by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 3:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

8566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

792

Will Australia hold a referendum on whether to retain the monarchy before 2030?

Feb 29, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.42%chance

8538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

132

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

2026 Midterms: Will Non-Republicans hold at least 54.3% of House seats on any day by August 2, 2027? (8/2/27)

Aug 1, 6:56 PMAug 1, 11:59 PM

44.43%chance

6122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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