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Prediction markets for On Holding

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

24.4%chance

11515870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2039

595

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

92.12%chance

447134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3204

202

Will Argentina hold presidential elections on schedule in 2027?

Nov 20, 3:13 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

78.63%chance

455839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

974

954

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.1%chance

414168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

775

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Feb 26, 8:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.87%chance

52165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2393

418

Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.36%chance

221775

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

907

Will Elon get margin called on the loans he took against his Tesla holdings to buy Twitter?

Mar 29, 12:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

16826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will Non-Republicans hold at least 53% of House seats on any day by July 27, 2027? (7/27/27)

Jul 28, 2:02 PMJul 26, 11:59 PM

67.62%chance

6547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1445

692

Will Moldova hold a referendum on unification with Romania by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 3:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.97%chance

7316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1168

901

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

17.24%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

219

46

Will Non-Republicans hold at least 54.6% of House seats on any day by August 4, 2027? (8/4/27)

Aug 2, 10:53 AMAug 3, 11:59 PM

43.88%chance

640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

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