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Prediction markets for On Holding

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

23.29%chance

11715930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2099

576

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.61%chance

6913547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1659

197

Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.02%chance

6713460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11406

5078

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

94.45%chance

477995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

163

Will Argentina hold presidential elections on schedule in 2027?

Nov 20, 3:13 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

78.63%chance

455839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

974

954

Will European investors face restrictions on their US stock holdings due to political risks before 2029?

Feb 26, 8:54 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.52%chance

62415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2643

378

Will Catalonia hold a referendum on independence from Spain before the end of 2029?

Apr 5, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.2%chance

252207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

781

Who will hold Marsha Blackburn's Senate seat on February 1, 2027?

Oct 25, 9:58 PMFeb 1, 2:59 PM

5629

OptionProbability

Glenn Jacobs

Tim Burchett

Damon Hininger

Pete Hegseth

Marsha Blackburn

Chuck Fleischmann

No one

Stuart McWhorter

Diana Harshbarger

Andy Ogles

Other

44

22

9

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

Will Moldova hold a referendum on unification with Romania by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 3:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.13%chance

8566

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

792

Will Australia hold a referendum on whether to retain the monarchy before 2030?

Feb 29, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.42%chance

8538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

132

Will Microstrategy have to pay any federal income taxes on unrealised gains on its cryptocurrency holdings in 2026?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMJan 1, 2:59 PM

15.43%chance

5163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

43

Which LLM Maker will hold the top Safety Score for Spiral-Bench on https://eqbench.com/spiral-bench.html on Jan1, 2027?

Jan 6, 7:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Antropic (E.g. Claude series)

OpenAI (E.g. ChatGPT series)

Moonshot AI (E.g. Kimi K series)

Google (E.g. Gemini series)

X.AI (E.g. Grok Series)

Alibaba (E.g. Qwen series)

Mistral AI (E.g. Mistral series)

DeepSeek (E.g. deepseek series)

Other

34

31

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

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