OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
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1
1
OptionProbability
Base digital game costs US$60 or less
Same-gender romantic relationships are possible (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact relationships)
Miis can have pets (more detailed implementation than just gifts like in TL)
House location on map can be customized
Will be released before 2027 (AoE)
Island can be terraformed (predefined expansions don't count, must be able to manually customize land placement or shape)
Miis can have children regardless of gender (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact having children)
Homes can be customized with individual furniture pieces
Updated to support the Switch 2 mouse mode in any capacity before 2027-06-01
Babies can be nonbinary at birth
Miis can have jobs/careers (more detailed implementation than just seeing them working at various places like in TL)
No region-locked food items
Music/song creation mode returns (like the Concert Hall)
Nintendo Switch 2 edition released before 2027 (AoE)
Players can visit other players' islands online or via local wireless
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream appears in the first *general* Nintendo DIrect of 2026
Gender is removed (e.g. consistently referred to as "style")
Miitopia-like makeup system
Romantic relationships are absent or not distinguished from friendships (one example: like the Miitopia systems)
100
99
99
99
99
99
92
81
55
50
45
43
37
33
30
16
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Knowledge about the Void Century
Something else
Ancient Weapon from the Void Century
Bink's Sake
Special eternal pose pointing to a location crucial for changing the world
A vast treasure accumulated by Gol D. Roger
The devil fruit tree
Time travel device
All Blue
The rope seem in the logo
Nothing
76
71
63
57
52
43
41
40
36
22
18
OptionProbability
France
Mexico
Greece
Japan
Australia
United Kingdom
United States
United Arab Emirates
India
Brazil
Switzerland
Other Location
98
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.
Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)
Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.
Other
A bluff.
Something to prevent her from committing suicide
Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.
Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.
Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves
Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.
Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.
Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)
Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.
The answer will never be officially revealed.
Something to help her learn rationality
77
19
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.
If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?
If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in
If your boat here sinks can you go in?
If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?
You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.
The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner
Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through
You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.
If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter
If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?
If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass
If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?
If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.
You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.
The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim
The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.
If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in
You can go through if you open the gate
You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner
If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in
Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate
You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space
You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.
You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.
Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?
This market will entirely be excluded from leagues
You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.
You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.
You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner
You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.
Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password
You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner
You can go in if you are ex navy.
This market gets more than 100 bettors
86
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18
OptionProbability
It includes 3-D animated media
It consists of/includes "Generation 6" according to the consensus of fan communities
It includes a mobile game (video game available on at least one major smartphone platform)
It includes a new comic book series
A new brony convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)
It includes at least an hour of animated media
It introduces a new character in animated media with the same name as a character in a prior generation
A new fan convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)
It introduces anthropomorphic/humanoid "pony" characters
It includes a video game on at least one major console
87
85
84
66
54
50
50
50
48
41
OptionProbability
Everett’s original
Decoherence & decision-theoretic Many-Worlds (Wallace)
Envariance / Quantum Darwinism (Zurek)
Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Vaidman)
Decoherent Histories (Gell-Mann–Hartle)
Many-Minds (Albert–Loewer)
Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Sebens–Carroll)
24
24
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24
24
24
24
OptionVotes
NO
YES
284
158
OptionProbability
Illinois
Colorado
55
45
OptionVotes
NO
YES
107
107
OptionProbability
Try to meet a county board member
Post flyers with QR code for a signup sheet to show community interest
Scout out locations besides Quincy Park
57
50
50
