DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Trump will be the POTUS
FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned
Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities
Elon removed as doge head
Pope dies
Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court
Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
GPT 5 releases
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US
Hollow Knight Silk song released
This whole market gets more than 300 traders
LEMMiNO releases a new video
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
Biden gets hospitalised
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
EF3+ Tornado Impacts Florida
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office
Early general elections in Pakistan
Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025
Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)
T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions
Ali Khamenei assassisnated
Mike Johnson is not Speaker
Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025
Ali Khamenei dies a natural death
In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth
Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence
Californian independence gains enough signatures
Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives
Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination
Dodgers win World Series
Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)
Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)
At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA
A country leaves NATO
Phillies win the World Series
Biden dies
Harry and Meghan divorce
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations
2025 hotter then 2024
Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025
Putin dies
After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved
Congress repeals any tariff
Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025
Chuck Schumer resigns
United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%
Ukraine internal coup attempt
Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19
Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series
China annexes Taiwan
Filibuster abolished
Zelensky Assassinated
Article 5 of NATO invoked
OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released
FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it
Kate and William divorce
Sam Altman gets fired again
At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA
Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt
Putin assassinated
NATO at war with Russia
Trump assassinated
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%
US-China war
A country leaves the EU
A nuclear bomb explodes
2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"
US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025
United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth
One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model
The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release
USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement
Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds
LK99 replicates at last
Greenland Joins USA
End of the world by celery
Ukraine joins NATO
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30
A US state secedes from the union
51st US State
Peter Turkson elected Pope
GTA 6 releases
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero
Harris will be the POTUS
Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31
Francis is always Pope
New pope takes name "Francis"
First papal conclave >= 10 ballots
First conclave elects Pope on first ballot
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
98
98
90
89
87
87
81
79
69
61
59
59
55
46
45
42
41
33
32
31
29
22
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
17
17
17
17
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Someone in the movie says the title
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The main theme song will be sung by a female
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
At least a portion filmed in Canada
A scene shows James Bond naked
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Death of a Bond love interest
Bond gets slapped
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Nazis (neo- counts)
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Bond wears a mask
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Canada is shown on screen
Sharks
Orgy
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A pinball machine will appear.
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Pirates
Assplay
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Bond plays Russian roulette
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
90
90
87
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
80
77
76
75
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
68
67
66
65
65
62
62
60
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
54
54
54
53
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
49
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
47
46
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
40
39
39
39
38
38
38
38
37
37
37
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
34
33
33
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
26
25
25
25
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Knowledge about the Void Century
Something else
A vast treasure accumulated by Gol D. Roger
Ancient Weapon from the Void Century
Special eternal pose pointing to a location crucial for changing the world
Bink's Sake
The devil fruit tree
Time travel device
All Blue
The rope seem in the logo
Nothing
79
68
66
63
59
57
53
40
36
22
18
OptionProbability
Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.
Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)
Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.
Other
A bluff.
Something to prevent her from committing suicide
Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.
Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.
Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves
Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.
Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.
Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)
Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.
The answer will never be officially revealed.
Something to help her learn rationality
77
19
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Will be released before 2027 (AoE)
House location on map can be customized
Same-gender romantic relationships are possible (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact relationships)
Miis can have children regardless of gender (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact having children)
Homes can be customized with individual furniture pieces
Players can visit other players' islands online or via local wireless
Miis can have pets (more detailed implementation than just gifts like in TL)
Nintendo Switch 2 edition released before 2027 (AoE)
93
90
86
79
49
34
33
20
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1782
778
OptionProbability
Other Location
Australia
United States
Japan
India
Mexico
United Kingdom
France
United Arab Emirates
Greece
Brazil
Switzerland
52
20
6
4
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1089
919
OptionProbability
It includes 3-D animated media
It consists of/includes "Generation 6" according to the consensus of fan communities
It includes a mobile game (video game available on at least one major smartphone platform)
It includes a new comic book series
A new brony convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)
It includes at least an hour of animated media
It introduces a new character in animated media with the same name as a character in a prior generation
It introduces anthropomorphic/humanoid "pony" characters
It includes a video game on at least one major console
87
85
84
66
54
50
50
48
41
OptionVotes
NO
YES
284
158
OptionVotes
NO
YES
107
107
OptionProbability
Illinois
Colorado
52
48