OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Nazis (neo- counts)
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Orgy
Canada is shown on screen
Will feature something that can turn invisible
A hamburger appears on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Pirates
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
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3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Same-gender romantic relationships are possible (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact relationships)
Miis can have children regardless of gender (incl. if gender is removed and does not impact having children)
Miis can have pets (more detailed implementation than just gifts like in TL)
House location on map can be customized
Will be released before 2027 (AoE)
Base digital game costs US$60 or less
No region-locked food items
Island can be terraformed (predefined expansions don't count, must be able to manually customize land placement or shape)
Updated to support the Switch 2 mouse mode in any capacity before 2027-06-01
Nintendo Switch 2 edition released before 2027 (AoE)
Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream appears in the first *general* Nintendo DIrect of 2026
Homes can be customized with individual furniture pieces
Players can visit other players' islands online or via local wireless
Music/song creation mode returns (like the Concert Hall)
Miis can have jobs/careers (more detailed implementation than just seeing them working at various places like in TL)
Gender is removed (e.g. consistently referred to as "style")
Miitopia-like makeup system
Romantic relationships are absent or not distinguished from friendships (one example: like the Miitopia systems)
Babies can be nonbinary at birth
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
50
28
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Knowledge about the Void Century
Something else
Ancient Weapon from the Void Century
Bink's Sake
Special eternal pose pointing to a location crucial for changing the world
A vast treasure accumulated by Gol D. Roger
The devil fruit tree
Time travel device
All Blue
The rope seem in the logo
Nothing
76
71
63
57
52
43
41
40
36
22
18
OptionProbability
France
Mexico
Greece
Japan
Australia
United Kingdom
United States
United Arab Emirates
India
Brazil
Switzerland
Other Location
98
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.
Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.
Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)
Other
Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.
A bluff.
Something to prevent her from committing suicide
Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.
Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.
Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves
Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.
Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)
Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.
The answer will never be officially revealed.
Something to help her learn rationality
74
12
12
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
It is possible to craft the TwistedSwd
A Weird Route save file can't load at all (not even a blank screen)
An "aborted Weird Route" has significant changes (not just a few lines of dialogue)
Noelle enters Castle Town
The official soundtrack has 40+ songs
Susie learns that Kris has been working with the Knight
Susie learns that Kris and the SOUL are two different entities
Dark Fountains are opened in multiple distinct locations
The Roaring happens
Rudy dies
Berdly appears in a Dark World
FRIEND becomes plot-relevant
New Soul Mode in a Boss Fight (Blue or Aqua)
A Dark Fountain is opened in Holiday Manor
A Dark Fountain is opened in the hospital
Anyone other than Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight
The vessel appears or is mentioned
Asriel appears
Papyrus appears
A Dark Fountain is re-opened in a previous location (e.g. the computer lab, Kris's house, etc.)
Susie and Kris enter the bunker
Dess is confirmed to be the Roaring Knight
The entire town becomes a Dark World
Light world combat
A battle against Seam
Only dark world visited is Castle Town
W.D. Gaster appears
A battle against FRIEND
The eggs hatch
78
73
71
71
70
61
57
50
50
50
50
49
49
43
41
40
40
35
34
28
28
27
21
21
20
20
19
15
13
OptionProbability
Something that's physical and tangible
Joyboy's treasure
Something directly related to devil fruit
Some sort of drink or cup
A way to connect the four seas, putting the ocean in one piece
Ancient Weapons are part of unlocking one piece
Something that would help with dethroning Imu
One piece is at the same location with the Devil Tree
Binks' Sake
something that fulfills the wish of all of Straw Hat Pirates
83
72
57
56
54
50
50
50
41
32
OptionProbability
It includes 3-D animated media
It consists of/includes "Generation 6" according to the consensus of fan communities
It includes at least an hour of animated media
It includes a mobile game (video game available on at least one major smartphone platform)
It includes a new comic book series
It introduces a new character in animated media with the same name as a character in a prior generation
A new brony convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)
A new fan convention occurs whose name makes a reference to it (character, location, etc.)
It introduces anthropomorphic/humanoid "pony" characters
It includes a video game on at least one major console
87
85
84
84
66
62
54
50
48
41
OptionProbability
There will never be a consensus
Everett’s original
Decoherence & decision-theoretic Many-Worlds (Wallace)
Envariance / Quantum Darwinism (Zurek)
Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Vaidman)
Decoherent Histories (Gell-Mann–Hartle)
Many-Minds (Albert–Loewer)
Self-Locating Uncertainty Many-Worlds (Sebens–Carroll)
50
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
OptionVotes
NO
YES
284
158
OptionProbability
Illinois
Colorado
55
45
OptionVotes
NO
YES
107
107
