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Prediction markets for On Running

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

Apr 28, 6:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

83.22%chance

435303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2208

382

Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?

Nov 14, 3:36 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

28.56%chance

324766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1581

632

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

Dec 30, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.2%chance

263129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

287

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Nov 17, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

17.53%chance

353097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1776

721

Will Elon Musk be in jail, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2030

Sep 3, 10:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.03%chance

272728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

961

Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?

Aug 19, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.07%chance

372536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

835

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

19.59%chance

111754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

1487

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will a voice assistant be able to run locally on a smartphone by 2030 ?

Dec 28, 11:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.91%chance

151286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

942

Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

Dec 21, 3:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

16843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1456

940

If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?

Dec 19, 2:10 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

70.33%chance

27542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

953

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

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