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Prediction markets for On Running

Anthropic 60B revenue annual run rate on July 6, 2026?

Apr 6, 11:22 PMJul 6, 11:59 PM

80.38%chance

5514563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2024

494

Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?

Nov 14, 3:36 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

17%chance

386685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1858

101

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

Dec 30, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.2%chance

263129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

287

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Nov 17, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18%chance

353105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

729

Will Elon Musk be in jail, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2030

Sep 3, 10:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.03%chance

272728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

961

Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?

Aug 19, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.07%chance

372536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

835

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

27%chance

192496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2311

1709

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will a voice assistant be able to run locally on a smartphone by 2030 ?

Dec 28, 11:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.91%chance

151286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

942

Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?

Jun 1, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.57%chance

11817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

571

If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?

Dec 19, 2:10 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

66.94%chance

29608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

976

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

40.78%chance

4235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

830

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