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Prediction markets for On Running

Conditional on Trump running for a third term, will he win?

Nov 14, 3:36 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

19.88%chance

396807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1785

117

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

Dec 30, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.44%chance

283683

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1787

61

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

May 29, 5:12 PMJan 1, 6:05 PM

42.5%chance

233523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2153

1456

Will there be a bank run on Manifold before 2028?

Nov 17, 7:27 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18%chance

353105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

729

Will Elon Musk be in jail, dead, disappeared or on the run by 1st Jan 2030

Sep 3, 10:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

13.73%chance

282828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

944

Will most computers still run on silicon-based hardware in 2100?

Aug 19, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.07%chance

372536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

835

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

Will a voice assistant be able to run locally on a smartphone by 2030 ?

Dec 28, 11:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.91%chance

151286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

942

Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

Dec 21, 3:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32%chance

221122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

171

Will OpenAI publicly share software it developed to make its AI run on chips from different providers, in 2026?

Jun 1, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.71%chance

12885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

573

An algorithm exists that can run on a Game Boy Advance that will pass one of the AGI tests in the linked question

Oct 17, 4:18 AMMar 26, 6:59 AM

37%chance

5335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

No significant improvement on current government supported capitalism will be running in a 10mn+ settlement/country by 2040

Feb 8, 10:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.6%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

119

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