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Prediction markets for One Finance

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

561

OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

May 22, 5:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.81%chance

318764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4851

94

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Sep 24, 4:51 PMSep 24, 4:25 PM

57.46%chance

432810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

860

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

86.42%chance

202731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3438

502

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

432617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

Meta sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Oct 30, 1:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.08%chance

241733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

921

Will I marry my girlfriend by 2032 year end? [M1,400 subsidy]

Mar 15, 9:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.13%chance

431474

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2360

1961

If I switch majors from Finance to Applied Mathematics, will I regret it in May 2027?

Feb 26, 7:46 AMMay 26, 6:04 AM

25.22%chance

151255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

581

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one trillion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 9:56 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

28.12%chance

121007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1703

1017

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.18%chance

19899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

921

Will 50-year mortgages be offered by 2029?

Nov 11, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.29%chance

8846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

566

What will be the overall ROI of the 2027 CoolFold Financial Portfolio after one year?

Nov 16, 7:24 AMJan 1, 5:42 AM

3501

OptionProbability

40%+

10% to 14%

15% to 19%

20% to 24%

25% to 29%

30% to 34%

35% to 39%

5% to 9%

- 5% to 4%

Below - 5%

15

13

13

13

13

13

9

8

5

1

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