One High Line News

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.22%chance

2511293

OptionVotes

YES

11988

1114

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Jul 7, 4:56 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

345837

OptionProbability

After June 2028

July 2027 to June 2028

Before July 2027

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Jun 15, 5:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.48%chance

453347

OptionVotes

YES

1587

228

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

30.46%chance

422329

OptionVotes

YES

1235

861

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2031?

Aug 25, 10:17 AMJan 17, 11:59 PM

22.23%chance

23910

OptionVotes

YES

997

915

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

YES

1149

870

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Aug 22, 12:50 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.49%chance

10163

OptionVotes

YES

1218

1095

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

Is Qiaochu Yuan a descendant of the Yuan Clan of Runan?

Jun 17, 6:11 PM

will there be a DOOM monster modeled after the NLRP3 inflammasome by 2055?

Jun 30, 12:16 PM

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Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2031?

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Will the World Meteorological Organization Decertify the 1913 Death Valley 134F Temperature Record During the 2020s?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Is Qiaochu Yuan a descendant of the Yuan Clan of Runan?

will there be a DOOM monster modeled after the NLRP3 inflammasome by 2055?

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