One in Four News

What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?

Dec 5, 5:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22697498

OptionProbability

It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

They record images/video using digital cameras

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Their true nature will remain a mystery

Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Belong to a hobbyist

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to an activist

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

Linked to illegal drug activity

Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public

An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones

Belong to a start-up

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

they're designed to look like a commercial jet

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to a large company

Belong to the US military/gov

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Are investigating Plasmoids

They’re looking for ionizing radiation

Hoax put on specifically by Anthpo

Are investigating Gamma Radiation

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Linked to Russia (government/military)

It's a publicity stunt for a company

Belong to a foreign government/agency

Aliens

Linked to Blockchain technology

AI superintelligence

Terrorism

It's a new delivery service

Linked to North Korea

Linked to China (government/military)

100% of all footage of the drones was AI generated

Secret private industry ARVs investigating the orbs individuals are summoning through meditation.

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2974768

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >=4%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

Feb 13, 8:46 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

73.72%chance

7511924

OptionVotes

YES

2338

983

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

YES

1439

695

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

YES

4193

4124

What will appear in Survivor 50 (that were featured in the fan vote)?

Feb 25, 9:23 AMJul 4, 3:59 PM

51430

OptionProbability

Idols (hidden individual immunity, whether found at camp, obtained through beware advantages, journeys, or otherwise)

Live Finale and Reunion Show in LA (YES) / Winner Reveal and After show in Fiji (NO)

Tribe Swap (YES) / No Tribe Swap (NO)

Start with rice (YES) / Make them earn rice (NO)

Lots of twists (YES) / Straightforward game (NO)

Final Four Challenge: Option C (Simmotion; the ball track one)

Advantages: Dynamic Power

Advantages: Minimal Power

Advantages: Strategic Power

Final Four Challenge: Option A (Plinko + Puzzle)

Final Four Fire Making (YES) / Final four elimination decided by vote (NO)

Final Four Challenge: Option B (Obstacle course ft mud and puzzle)

What is One Piece? (One Piece Manga)

Jan 10, 5:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20749

OptionProbability

Something that's physical and tangible

Joyboy's treasure

Some sort of drink or cup

A way to connect the four seas, putting the ocean in one piece

Ancient Weapons are part of unlocking one piece

Something that would help with dethroning Imu

One piece is at the same location with the Devil Tree

Binks' Sake

something that fulfills the wish of all of Straw Hat Pirates

Something directly related to devil fruit

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

1093

775

Will one of the Big Four airlines go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before EOY 2026?

Dec 24, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.18%chance

10198

OptionVotes

YES

270

148

Who will be the next of these four Round One 2021 NFL QBs to start at least nine games in a season?

Mar 30, 2:16 PMJan 31, 3:59 PM

5151

OptionProbability

Justin Fields

Mac Jones

Zach Wilson

Trey Lance

Among the current four emperors who is most likely to drop out of the race to the one piece first

Mar 16, 1:40 PM

160

One in Four News

Prediction markets for One in Four

Prediction markets for One in Four

Prediction markets for One in Four

What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

What will appear in Survivor 50 (that were featured in the fan vote)?

What is One Piece? (One Piece Manga)

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Will one of the Big Four airlines go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before EOY 2026?

Who will be the next of these four Round One 2021 NFL QBs to start at least nine games in a season?

Among the current four emperors who is most likely to drop out of the race to the one piece first

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