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Prediction markets for One Inc

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Apr 14, 8:06 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

30.21%chance

1712057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

658

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will glyphosate (Roundup) be shown to be one of the primary factors in the increase in US childhood obesity by 2030?

Feb 10, 5:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.13%chance

293153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1379

904

Which DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-07-04?

Aug 13, 10:38 PMJul 8, 11:59 PM

52560

OptionProbability

Antares Nuclear Inc.

Valar Atomics Inc.

Oklo Inc. (one or both projects)

Atomic Alchemy Inc.

Deep Fission Inc.

Last Energy Inc.

Natura Resources LLC

Radiant Industries Inc.

Terrestrial Energy Inc.

Oklo Inc. (both projects)

Aalo Atomics Inc.

97

53

18

16

16

16

16

16

16

10

8

Which DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-12-31?

Aug 13, 10:43 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

3949

OptionProbability

Antares Nuclear Inc.

Valar Atomics Inc.

Radiant Industries Inc.

Oklo Inc. (one or both projects)

Atomic Alchemy Inc.

Deep Fission Inc.

Last Energy Inc.

Terrestrial Energy Inc.

Natura Resources LLC

Oklo Inc. (both projects)

Aalo Atomics Inc.

90

68

59

55

37

37

37

37

33

31

30

Will there be at least one Bank of England Base Rate increase before the end of 2026?

Dec 18, 3:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.24%chance

11589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

97

Will SpaceX combine with Tesla in 2026?

Jan 15, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.97%chance

15447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

90

Will there be at least one peer-reviewed study correlating AI usage with increased mental illness by end of 2028?

Oct 3, 8:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

94.61%chance

7319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

419

24

Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?

Jan 22, 6:29 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

66.1%chance

8104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

335

274

Will the 21st Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, to be selected in 2027, include at least one woman?

Mar 27, 3:20 AMJan 27, 3:59 PM

52.05%chance

561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

126

91

Will a Korean win a Nobel Prize in one of the science categories from 2025-2028 inclusive?

Jan 6, 5:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.52%chance

456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

91

What's most likely to increase one's change of getting a ML Engineer job

Apr 1, 5:06 PM

20

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