One Peak News

🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]

Jan 12, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13419997

OptionProbability

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

Taylor Swift has been married

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

True Detective Season 5 released

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

1200 or more official pokemon

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

China has landed a human on the moon

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

Taylor Swift has been divorced

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

Jimmy Carter is still alive

100

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.75%chance

3019292

OptionVotes

YES

1537

651

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Apr 14, 8:06 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

28.86%chance

1712007

OptionVotes

YES

1570

637

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.91%chance

3511987

OptionVotes

YES

18344

5235

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Feb 15, 9:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6.09%chance

243124

OptionVotes

YES

3239

689

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

43%chance

222407

OptionVotes

YES

1208

508

Which space application will first use 1 MWe?

Sep 20, 12:35 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

92097

OptionProbability

Cryptocurrency mining

Hosted data center

Reflected sunlight

Manufacturing

Beamed power

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

1380

928

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

43%chance

16987

OptionVotes

YES

1122

765

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:30 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

77%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

385

112

Will the total world population peak over 9.5 billion?

Oct 19, 3:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

80.83%chance

7216

OptionVotes

YES

225

111

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Sep 10, 4:48 AMSep 17, 6:59 AM

46.7%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

1068

936

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🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Will Reality Shifting be proven as a real phenomenon before 2070?

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Which space application will first use 1 MWe?

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?

Will the total world population peak over 9.5 billion?

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

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