One Peak News

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.51%chance

5226655

OptionVotes

YES

1624

616

🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]

Jan 12, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14324080

OptionProbability

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Taylor Swift has been married

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

True Detective Season 5 released

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

Xi still leader of China

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

Putin still leader of Russia

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

1200 or more official pokemon

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

I'll be dead.

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Taylor Swift has been divorced

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

China has landed a human on the moon

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

Jimmy Carter is still alive

100

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.06%chance

4418249

OptionVotes

YES

19828

4806

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Apr 14, 8:06 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

29.53%chance

1812082

OptionVotes

YES

1545

647

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Aug 28, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.78%chance

648385

OptionVotes

YES

1008

959

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:34 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

65%chance

222700

OptionVotes

YES

1500

257

Will bitcoin rise to 105k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?

Sep 29, 1:01 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

33.32%chance

251596

OptionVotes

YES

1415

707

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

62.42%chance

181338

OptionVotes

YES

1467

455

Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.09%chance

6912

OptionVotes

YES

1398

1396

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:30 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

79%chance

15609

OptionVotes

YES

408

105

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Sep 10, 4:48 AMSep 17, 6:59 AM

28.9%chance

3570

OptionVotes

YES

1568

638

Will the US labor force participation rate drop below 60% by EoY 2028?

Oct 13, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.51%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

1020

942

One Peak News

Prediction markets for One Peak

Prediction markets for One Peak

Prediction markets for One Peak

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

🔮What will be true about the world at the end of 2028? [ADD RESPONSES]

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak?

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?

Will bitcoin rise to 105k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Faster S&P 500 Crash than the Dotcom Bubble before 2030?

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 6% as measured from a prior peak?

Will the Northeast Face of Mashenbrum be climed by end of 2032?

Will the US labor force participation rate drop below 60% by EoY 2028?

Latest stories