One Trading News

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.29%chance

194280513

OptionVotes

YES

11088

9368

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

4.85%chance

8070383

OptionVotes

YES

45057

2509

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.15%chance

17160323

OptionVotes

YES

10776

7116

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

Jan 12, 9:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

5837870

OptionVotes

YES

32549

4033

This market will resolve once it reaches the maximum value 1,000,000,000,000 with at least one trade.

Jul 31, 9:52 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

2710686

OptionProbability

YES

738

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

34973

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

Under $2B

N/A

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.02%chance

163631

OptionVotes

YES

11408

8833

Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2025 ends?

Apr 15, 3:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.77%chance

131209

OptionVotes

YES

754

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

1107

931

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

May 6, 3:18 PMJan 1, 4:09 PM

5288

OptionProbability

New trade deals with higher tariffs on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

A global tariff remains in effect close to 10% (5-15%) with a significantly higher tariff on China (40%+)

Trump announces new "trade deals" that are mostly in line with previous ones (A la USMCA reworking of NAFTA)

Trump unilaterally backs down from high tariffs and we mostly return to 2024 status quo

New trade deals see generally lower taxes on Non-China countries than the 2024 status quo

Other

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Feb 17, 7:52 AMMar 1, 7:59 AM

43.94%chance

9192

OptionVotes

YES

10076

9896

Will Legends Tower be taller than the One World Trade Center?

Jun 5, 11:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.98%chance

175

OptionVotes

YES

173

One Trading News

Prediction markets for One Trading

Prediction markets for One Trading

Prediction markets for One Trading

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Will audio recordings of FDIC malfeasance vis crypto be confirmed?

This market will resolve once it reaches the maximum value 1,000,000,000,000 with at least one trade.

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2025 ends?

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Which of the following will best represent my assessment of the end outcome of the Trump tariffs

How many of 10 distinct objects will Sora depict, given a 100% visual prompt that doesn't include any of the objects?

Will Legends Tower be taller than the One World Trade Center?

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