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Prediction markets for One Trading

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.18%chance

223117871

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13138

3050

Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months?

Nov 8, 12:33 AMAug 20, 3:59 AM

2.03%chance

2348282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39043

1407

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7745148

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

British Pound (GBP)*

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Manifold Mana

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Gold (Au)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Paperclips

TRUMP

63

31

24

20

9

8

8

8

8

7

6

5

5

4

3

2

Will any 4 of AAPL, AMZN, ASML, GOOG, META, MSFT, NVDA, and TSM lose 60% of their peak value before 2028?

Sep 23, 4:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.53%chance

3512278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18053

5328

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Jun 11, 4:45 PMJun 18, 8:59 PM

3011898

OptionProbability

With a cisgender woman

With anyone at all

With a cisgender man

With a transfeminine person

With a transmasculine person

100

100

40

39

24

This market will resolve once it reaches the maximum value 1,000,000,000,000 with at least one trade.

Jul 31, 9:52 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

2710686

OptionProbability

NO

YES

738

76

What range will Polymarket token FDV fall in one week after launch?

Jan 29, 1:58 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

56573

OptionProbability

Over $8B

$4B-$6B

$2B-$4B

$6B-$8B

N/A

Under $2B

53

14

9

9

8

7

Does eating snow dehydrate you?

Apr 10, 4:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.42%chance

333412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

892

If AI wipes out humanity, will mana still have value afterwards?

Jul 13, 11:18 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

48.11%chance

272291

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

983

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMDec 8, 9:35 PM

25.25%chance

15869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

931

Will Legends Tower be taller than the One World Trade Center?

Jun 5, 11:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.98%chance

175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

How long will my career be?

Mar 16, 4:47 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2026-2035

2036-2045

2046-2055

2056-2065

2066-2075

2076-2085

2086-2095

2096-2100

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

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