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Prediction markets for One Wall Street

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.73%chance

2517642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Dec 23, 1:53 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

374594

OptionProbability

Greenland

Panama Canal

Other

Canada

Yucatán

Baja

Sonora

56

23

9

5

3

2

2

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

224499

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

20

6

5

5

3

Which Trump children will be indicted or arrested by the midterm elections in 2026?

Dec 3, 10:54 PMNov 4, 4:59 AM

162120

OptionProbability

Donald Trump Jr.

Eric Trump

Ivanka Trump

Barron Trump

Tiffany Trump

14

14

10

10

6

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

Jan 26, 2:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

39.12%chance

361979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

859

298

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

15.92%chance

91655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2298

435

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

11.4%chance

181414

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

941

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

60.75%chance

5103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

297

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

137

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

21

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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