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One Wall Street News

How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?

Sep 10, 8:16 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

7836816

OptionProbability

1+ OpenAI employees resign

2+ Anthropic employees resign

2+ OpenAI employees resign

3+ Anthropic employees resign

3+ OpenAI employees resign

4+ Anthropic employees resign

4+ OpenAI employees resign

5+ Anthropic employees resign

5+ OpenAI employees resign

48

45

24

22

18

12

11

7

6

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.23%chance

4724076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Dec 23, 1:53 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

374594

OptionProbability

Greenland

Panama Canal

Other

Canada

Yucatán

Baja

Sonora

56

23

9

5

3

2

2

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

5.56%chance

204177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4122

243

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.94%chance

131653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

146

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

16.21%chance

231543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

876

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.26%chance

91154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?

Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

6817

OptionProbability

Other

None

Point72

Balyasny

Millennium

Citadel

48

38

4

4

3

3

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will any major US airlines allow one free checked bag domestically by 2030?

Apr 25, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.75%chance

7139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

75

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

137

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

21

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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