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Prediction markets for One Wall Street

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

2818339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2112

474

Will PA Governor Josh Shapiro be arrested in connection with the Butler PA attempt to assassinate Trump?

Feb 10, 3:05 PMFeb 18, 4:59 AM

234504

OptionProbability

Shapiro is subpoenaed to testify before Congress, the FBI, or another agency of the Federal government

Shapiro is indicted by a grand jury

Shapiro is arrested

Shapiro is brought to trial

Shapiro is found guilty of involvement with the plot

20

6

5

5

3

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

243539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2000

500

Will Trump announce before the midterms that US is pulling out of NATO?

Jan 19, 9:56 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

18.04%chance

142035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2132

469

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

17.16%chance

221493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

826

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM

53.61%chance

7311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

60.75%chance

5103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

300

297

Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?

Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

490

OptionProbability

Other

Millennium

Citadel

Point72

Balyasny

None

53

10

10

10

10

8

Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?

Mar 13, 10:36 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

32.42%chance

473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

137

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

21

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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