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Prediction markets for One Wall Street

Will Trump balance the U.S. budget before his term ends?

Feb 7, 9:09 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

7429608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6082

164

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.51%chance

5226655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

616

What will Trump try to bring under U.S. control?

Dec 23, 1:53 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

374650

OptionProbability

Greenland

Panama Canal

Other

Canada

Yucatán

Baja

Sonora

63

18

8

5

3

2

2

Will we learn that Anthropic lied to investors about operating profitable in Q2 2026 before 2028?

May 25, 8:51 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

10.1%chance

131703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1764

95

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?

Jun 16, 8:47 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

16.21%chance

231543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

876

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

101159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

Which multistrategy hedge fund (pod shop) will blow up by 2027 year end?

Oct 9, 12:53 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

6892

OptionProbability

Other

None

Balyasny

Point72

Millennium

Citadel

48

37

6

4

3

3

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

Which funds will blow up after the October 2026 AI selloff?

Oct 17, 5:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7188

OptionProbability

Blue Owl

VARA (Value Aligned Research Advisors)

Situational Awareness LP

Jane Street

Hudson River Trading (HRT)

44

15

10

3

2

Will any major US airlines allow one free checked bag domestically by 2030?

Apr 25, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.02%chance

8159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

95

Will the US military strike Houthi targets in Yemen before November 12, 2026?

Oct 12, 9:10 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM

8%chance

5135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

81

What number of Am Law 100 firms will have capitulated to Trump by the 2026 midterms?

Apr 4, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

238

OptionProbability

6-10

11-20

21-30

Less than 5

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

22

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

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