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Prediction markets for One Zero

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

15.68%chance

24770128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1877

733

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)

May 9, 8:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.1%chance

2218272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

910

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will there be a peer-reviewed, widely accepted scientific explanation of how consciousness emerges by 31/Dec/2033?

Sep 2, 10:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.3%chance

363795

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

323

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.7%chance

191779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

What will be the population of “The Line” in 2033?

Jul 19, 12:40 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

53.08%chance

141439

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1129

805

Will my tinnitus be gone by 2050?

Dec 1, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.19%chance

71167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

813

Waymo achieves aviation-grade safety at 2 billion miles with 0 at-fault fatalities?

Sep 27, 7:46 AMJan 1, 8:45 AM

52.83%chance

5546

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

945

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

945

Will "AI found 12 of 12 OpenSSL zero-days (while cu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 28, 9:03 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will "Synthetic Persona Pretraining: Alignment from..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 28, 10:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.9%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

999

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