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Top stories

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

UK ONS Revises GDP Upward, Delays Retail Sales Data on Quality Checks

Authors

13

9 months ago

Prediction markets for ONS

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4007

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.47%chance

292287764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7849

3528

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.81%chance

469128479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11212

10521

Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?

Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM

30.42%chance

2154258

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16293

6948

Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029 (noon ET)?

Nov 16, 5:04 AMJan 21, 5:01 AM

61.29%chance

21439733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2088

1962

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.29%chance

15018100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10070

9929

Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?

Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM

20.3%chance

1214238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19816

5046

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4310153

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will LME cobalt metal official cash settlement price exceed 55 USD per kg on June 30, 2026?

Mar 21, 2:23 AMJun 30, 4:00 AM

74.9%chance

149135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17274

5789

Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?

Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.4%chance

198426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15475

6475

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.39%chance

196976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13522

7406

Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?

Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.1%chance

224428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10005

9976

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