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Prediction markets for ONS
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50%chance
555496084
OptionVotes
3489
1137
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
62.22%chance
270269974
OptionVotes
5677
4517
Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
52%chance
452120313
OptionVotes
11005
10745
Will there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
Jun 24, 1:17 PMSep 3, 4:00 AM
29.57%chance
1953878
OptionVotes
16624
6806
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
70.76%chance
17325218
OptionVotes
11898
9090
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?
Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
44.29%chance
14818058
OptionVotes
10070
9929
Will Trump cheer on a violent attack on a public intellectual?
Apr 28, 7:37 PMFeb 2, 8:37 PM
26.71%chance
1210988
OptionVotes
16566
6037
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4310153
OptionVotes
10938
8979
Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?
Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
30.01%chance
85507
OptionVotes
15284
6552
Will Harriet Tubman replace Andrew Jackson on the $20 by the end of 2030?
Nov 10, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
36.45%chance
144236
OptionVotes
13183
7595
Will Charles Schwab customers have access to a prediction market on the 2028 US presidential election?
Jan 31, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
55.21%chance
204208
OptionVotes
10135
9805
By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?
Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
28.8%chance
11360
OptionVotes
10122
9934