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Prediction markets for OP

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.49%chance

18021021808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17864

9273

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.35%chance

3947145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118404

88423

OpenAI will be nationalized or have the Defense Production Act applied to it by mid 2030

Jun 5, 3:33 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

34.31%chance

5717669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13461

7504

Do the Gorosei have Devil Fruit Powers? Or are they something else? OP Ch 1111+

Mar 6, 12:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.04%chance

819000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

961

Barron Trump is not fully natural [Mod Note: OP includes "steroids, gene therapy, IVF, etc."]

Jun 13, 9:36 PMJun 21, 4:59 AM

42.19%chance

206441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12038

8179

Will an op-ed “translated from” an animal (e.g. a Whale) be published in any major American newspaper by 2026?

Oct 31, 6:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.99%chance

202235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2533

873

In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?

Mar 30, 2:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8284

OptionProbability

Helped with >80% confidence

Helped with >60% confidence

Uncertain

Harmed with >60% confidence

Harmed with >80% confidence

66

23

6

5

1

Which New York Mets player will have the highest OPS in the 2025 regular season (minimum 300 plate appearances)?

Mar 6, 4:16 AMSep 29, 3:59 AM

3130

OptionProbability

Juan Soto

Pete Alonso

Francisco Lindor

Brandon Nimmo

Other

48

43

3

3

3

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 sells over 10 million copies within 30 days of release

Jun 14, 9:26 AMNov 30, 10:24 AM

76.08%chance

6115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

University of Waterloo co-op students employed in the USA for Fall 2025 term?

Jun 14, 4:55 PMSep 23, 4:39 PM

380

Will both the American League and National League have a qualified player above 1.000 OPS during the 2025 MLB season?

Jan 10, 5:42 PMOct 4, 4:59 AM

68.36%chance

447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will Jose Luis Ricon run more than 864 quintillion floating point ops on a NVIDIA h100/b200 (or better) by EOY2026

Feb 4, 6:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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