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Prediction markets for Open AI

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87154421

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2028-2029

2025-2026

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

44

35

10

5

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.78%chance

163921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

82.69%chance

252991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2185

458

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Jul 13, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.3%chance

202738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

713

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Jun 26, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.1%chance

262110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1825

548

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

201549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

928

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

Jun 27, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.89%chance

10995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1933

517

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.65%chance

13877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

584

Will USA have an authoritarian president who is openly an AI alignment or degrowth proponent by 2044?

Sep 14, 12:22 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

26.14%chance

16554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

978

Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?

May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.97%chance

17485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

821

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