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Prediction markets for Open AI

When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

May 26, 11:35 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87146143

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2026-2027

2025-2026

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

60

26

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026

Jan 2, 7:49 AMJan 15, 7:59 AM

19.5%chance

153590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

81.68%chance

242886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2112

474

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

Jul 13, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.66%chance

192688

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1353

739

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.9%chance

91750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2623

2468

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Jun 26, 10:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.83%chance

221727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2147

466

Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)

Apr 8, 7:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.29%chance

201549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

928

Will there be a disaster caused by open source developers doing unsafe things with AI by 2028?

Apr 7, 5:48 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

62.13%chance

23895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

902

AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?

Dec 23, 4:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.65%chance

13877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

584

Will USA have an authoritarian president who is openly an AI alignment or degrowth proponent by 2044?

Sep 14, 12:22 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

26.14%chance

16554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

978

Will Sam Altman be CEO of Open AI when Strong AGI is achieved by any organization?

May 7, 8:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.97%chance

17485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

821

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

Jun 27, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.67%chance

9445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1383

723

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