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Prediction markets for Open Dollar

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

8278300

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

98

1

1

0

0

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

Feb 23, 8:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.03%chance

241871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

918

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

535

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

50

15

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?

Jun 18, 3:36 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.53%chance

8695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

1280

Will Android be Open source (truly, properly) before 2028?

Dec 18, 5:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.36%chance

14353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

483

130

Will "Digger" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend

Jul 14, 11:55 AMOct 5, 11:59 PM

48.1%chance

15292

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

70

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will "The Social Reckoning" earn more than $23M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend

Aug 22, 9:44 AMOct 12, 11:59 PM

17.25%chance

4148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

24

Will "Primetime" earn more than $23M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening we

Aug 12, 4:42 AMSep 28, 11:59 PM

33.94%chance

11116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

25

Real-world world applications of large cardinals by 2100

Jan 2, 5:29 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

48

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