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Prediction markets for Open Dollar

In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

Jun 20, 4:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 PM

6418644

OptionProbability

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2050

54

19

11

9

6

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

785173

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

49

27

13

10

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

If Russia does NOT annex Ukraine before 2024, will Ukraine's 2030 real GDP be over 180bn USD (in 2020 US dollars)?

Feb 23, 8:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.16%chance

231866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

920

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

101260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

535

Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?

Jun 8, 10:14 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

4.1%chance

221182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

520

33

What is the next speculative bubble to happen no longer than December 2029?

Jul 29, 9:45 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

131015

OptionProbability

Other bubble

NO BUBBLE

Virtual reality/artificial reality

Crypto

Green commodities (copper, lithium, nickel...)

Space exploration

U.S. Real Estate

Other G7 Real Estate

Nuclear energy

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Russia

Superconductors

Biotech

Weight-loss drugs

Self-driving cars

EVs and batteries

United States

Japan

Europe

South America

Southeast Asia

Oil and fossil fuels

Carbon capture

Emerging market Real Estate

Defense

Everything bubble

50

15

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?

Jun 18, 3:36 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.53%chance

8695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

1280

Will "The Odyssey" earn more than $120M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?

May 25, 9:21 AMJul 28, 9:20 AM

23%chance

15288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

73

Will "Jackass: Best and Last" earn more than $25M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weeken

Jun 15, 9:43 AMJun 30, 9:40 AM

10.78%chance

13277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

22

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earn more than $230M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening we

Jun 22, 9:12 AMAug 4, 11:59 PM

40.99%chance

9234

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

85

Real-world world applications of large cardinals by 2100

Jan 2, 5:29 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

23.58%chance

140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

48

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