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Prediction markets for Open Interpreter

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

93.6%chance

214478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3824

261

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?

Dec 12, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

193152

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Josh Shapiro

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Jon Ossoff

Mark Kelly

Ruben Gallego

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Wes Moore

Ro Khanna

JB Pritzker

Kamala Harris

Chris Van Hollen

Rahm Emanuel

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Tim Walz

Josh Green

72

48

40

38

34

32

27

25

24

20

19

16

15

12

9

8

8

5

5

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.94%chance

372146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

884

In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Feb 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.36%chance

611791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

1017

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.6%chance

221642

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

525

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Aug 4, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.84%chance

151150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

818

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Anthropic open-source the training code of their SAE interpretability effort?

Jul 3, 9:38 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

5485

OptionProbability

this year, significantly incomplete

not before 2028

next year

this year, fully

Other

29

23

19

14

14

How much physics have we discovered, of all there is to discover?

Dec 19, 4:47 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

35.51%chance

17313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

915

Will Salesforce announce a sale to a major AI/tech company within 365 days of the first OpenAI or Anthropic listing?

Oct 4, 12:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2206

OptionProbability

First public listing occurs, but no qualifying acquisition announced in the window

Qualifying Salesforce acquisition announced

Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic publicly listed by December 31, 2028

92

4

4

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