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Prediction markets for Open Interpreter

Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026

Feb 2, 11:37 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

74.48%chance

313641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

936

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Feb 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.6%chance

601782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

1008

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

29.8%chance

51492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

652

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Aug 4, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.22%chance

14900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1553

858

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Anthropic open-source the training code of their SAE interpretability effort?

Jul 3, 9:38 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

5485

OptionProbability

this year, significantly incomplete

not before 2028

next year

this year, fully

Other

29

23

19

14

14

How much physics have we discovered, of all there is to discover?

Dec 19, 4:47 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

35.51%chance

17313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

915

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