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Prediction markets for Open Interpreter

Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?

May 18, 4:27 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.1%chance

7636038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

731

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Jul 14, 8:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.62%chance

362030

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

784

In 2030, will most human-computer interactions happen through a LLM-interface?

Feb 4, 7:41 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.6%chance

601782

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

1008

Will there be an Antimemetics Division show/movie by late 2029?

Sep 20, 6:54 PMSep 20, 8:59 PM

21.62%chance

211641

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1904

525

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

39.28%chance

41167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

804

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright?

Aug 4, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.22%chance

14900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1553

858

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Anthropic open-source the training code of their SAE interpretability effort?

Jul 3, 9:38 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

5485

OptionProbability

this year, significantly incomplete

not before 2028

next year

this year, fully

Other

29

23

19

14

14

How much physics have we discovered, of all there is to discover?

Dec 19, 4:47 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

35.51%chance

17313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

915

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