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Prediction markets for Open License AI

When will OpenAI release their next open-source language model?

Aug 8, 7:45 PMDec 31, 8:44 PM

114955

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2026

Before August 2026

Before July 2026

Before June 2026

Before May 2026

Before April 2026

Before March 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

75

70

66

63

59

55

50

40

34

28

20

15

6

0

0

0

0

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

8.43%chance

394420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3296

303

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.47%chance

21563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

721

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.87%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

732

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

168

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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