Open License AI News

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.13%chance

24783

OptionVotes

YES

1061

892

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.26%chance

6447

OptionVotes

YES

507

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.15%chance

10392

OptionVotes

YES

152

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

170

168

Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?

Aug 5, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.54%chance

7111

OptionVotes

YES

156

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Oct 5, 10:04 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

481

OptionProbability

Oct 13 to Oct 19

By Oct 12, 2026

Oct 20 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Not by Nov 15, 2026

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Sep 13, 11:16 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

262

OptionProbability

IF ban enacted by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if no ban)

IF no ban by end of 2028: OpenAI + Anthropic ≥ $4T combined on Jan 1, 2029 (N/A if ban)

US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030

Will https://errorcorrectionzoo.org/concepts still be online in 2040?

Mar 18, 5:58 PM

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

Open License AI News

Prediction markets for Open License AI

Prediction markets for Open License AI

Prediction markets for Open License AI

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Will the US ban open-weight AI models, and what happens to OpenAI + Anthropic's valuation if it does?

Will https://errorcorrectionzoo.org/concepts still be online in 2040?

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

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