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Prediction markets for Open License AI

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.34%chance

22663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

821

Will Alibaba release an open-source Music Generation AI model in 2026?

Jan 20, 2:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

6286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.2%chance

10272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

168

Stephen Casper: by EOY2026, a system with comparable cyber capabilities to Mythos will be widely available?

Apr 10, 9:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.43%chance

5247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

307

33

Will Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?

Aug 5, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.54%chance

7111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

17

When will Krea 2 weights become publicly available?

May 25, 2:46 PMSep 1, 4:00 AM

120

OptionProbability

Jan 1, 2027 to April 30, 2027

May 1, 2027 to August 31, 2027

September 1, 2027 or later

Before Jan 1, 2027

27

27

27

18

Will https://errorcorrectionzoo.org/concepts still be online in 2040?

Mar 18, 5:58 PM

20

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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