Open Model Initiative News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19947933

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Feb 15, 8:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96375

OptionProbability

Above $500

Below $100

$100 - $149

$150 - $199

$200 - $249

$250 - $299

$300 - $349

$350 - $399

$400 - $449

$450 - $500

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?

Jun 25, 3:14 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

155875

OptionProbability

1.75T+

2T+

2.5T+

3T+

3.5T+

4T+

4.5T+

5T+

100

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Nov 26, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35334

OptionProbability

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

May-Jun 2026

Mar-Apr 2026

Dec 2025

Jan-Feb 2026

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Jun 25, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163815

OptionProbability

1.75T+

2T+

2.5T+

3T+

3.5T+

4T+

4.5T+

5T+

100

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Aug 16, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

22%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

188

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will the Caltech Mathathon be cancelled?

Sep 15, 7:11 AMOct 15, 7:05 AM

8%chance

462

OptionVotes

YES

125

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

Will "Open Global Investment as a Governance Model ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 27, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Aug 5, 10:18 AMDec 31, 10:17 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Open Model Initiative News

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Will the Caltech Mathathon be cancelled?

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Will "Open Global Investment as a Governance Model ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

The Business Benefits of Mobile Entertainment Attractions

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

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