Open Model Initiative News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Feb 15, 8:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96375

OptionProbability

Above $500

Below $100

$100 - $149

$150 - $199

$200 - $249

$250 - $299

$300 - $349

$350 - $399

$400 - $449

$450 - $500

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Jun 25, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

163842

OptionProbability

1.75T+

2T+

2.5T+

3T+

3.5T+

4T+

4.5T+

5T+

100

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Aug 16, 9:37 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

10.24%chance

13402

OptionVotes

YES

412

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

130

Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year be AI-related?

Nov 1, 11:07 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.36%chance

882

OptionVotes

YES

120

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

YES

124

Will "Open Global Investment as a Governance Model ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 27, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will Soros's Open Society Foundations be defunct and cease to exist before 2031?

Oct 12, 9:50 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

9.99%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

When will I, a random person in the Steam Frame waitlist, get a chance to buy a Steam Frame?

Sep 28, 4:13 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Jul 2027

Before Oct 2027

Before Jan 2028

Open Model Initiative News

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?

Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Will Cambridge Dictionary's 2026 Word of the Year be AI-related?

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Will "Open Global Investment as a Governance Model ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Soros's Open Society Foundations be defunct and cease to exist before 2031?

When will I, a random person in the Steam Frame waitlist, get a chance to buy a Steam Frame?

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