Open Model Initiative News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543864

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Nov 26, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23584

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

Jan-Feb 2026

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?

Nov 11, 6:25 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

61282

OptionProbability

1T+

2T+

1.5T+

2.5T+

3T+

3.5T+

4T+

4.5T+

5T+

100

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Feb 15, 8:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

61085

OptionProbability

Above $500

$300 - $349

$350 - $399

$400 - $449

$450 - $500

$250 - $299

$150 - $199

$200 - $249

Below $100

$100 - $149

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

YES

130

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

Will "Open Global Investment as a Governance Model ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 27, 11:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Open Model Initiative News

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Prediction markets for Open Model Initiative

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Weights in largest open-weight AI model before July 2026?

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Will "Open Global Investment as a Governance Model ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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