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Top stories

Jerusalem Demsas Raises $4 Million to Launch Liberal Journal ‘The Argument’

Jerusalem Demsas Raises $4 Million to Launch Liberal Journal ‘The Argument’

Authors

9

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Open Philanthropy

Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

2910808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

914

Will Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.18%chance

14798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1994

927

In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?

Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM

15.64%chance

22709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

970

Will Cari Tuna (Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.11%chance

11665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

951

Will Dustin Moskovitz (Facebook, Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

6634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

131

Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.46%chance

8620

OptionVotes

YES

NO

723

137

How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2025?

Aug 20, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4580

OptionProbability

350-400m

300-350m

400-450m

250-300m

200-250m

450-500m

500-550m

550-600m

More than 600m

150-200m

Less than 150m

28

24

9

7

6

5

5

5

5

4

3

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

20553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

711

Will the US implement software export controls for frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 12:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.8%chance

23513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1290

868

Will "Open Philanthropy Technical AI Safety RFP - $..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 7, 6:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.26%chance

114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

98

What will be the next “Contest” or “Prizes” announced by Open Philanthropy?

Aug 22, 3:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38

OptionProbability

Other

AI Worldviews

None

Cause Exploration

EA Criticism and/or red teaming

27

21

17

17

17

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