Open Philanthropy News
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Prediction markets for Open Philanthropy
Will Alexander Berger (Open Philanthropy) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 15, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5%chance
2910808
OptionVotes
1741
914
How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2025?
Aug 20, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
5799
OptionProbability
28
23
13
7
6
5
4
4
4
3
2
Will Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy, AI governance) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 15, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.18%chance
14798
OptionVotes
1994
927
In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
Mar 4, 1:28 AMMar 11, 4:59 AM
15.64%chance
22709
OptionVotes
1004
970
Will Cari Tuna (Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 15, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.11%chance
11665
OptionVotes
1504
951
Will Dustin Moskovitz (Facebook, Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 15, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.76%chance
6634
OptionVotes
332
131
Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 15, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.46%chance
8620
OptionVotes
723
137
Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?
Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM
15.36%chance
11571
OptionVotes
1322
912
Will "Leaving Open Philanthropy, going to Anthropic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 4, 8:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
11.16%chance
1250
OptionVotes
1250
964
Will Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) direct ≥$1.5B in grants in 2026?
Jul 21, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.75%chance
9131
OptionVotes
117
86
Will "Open Philanthropy Technical AI Safety RFP - $..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Feb 7, 6:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.26%chance
114
OptionVotes
114
98
What will be the next “Contest” or “Prizes” announced by Open Philanthropy?
Aug 22, 3:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
39
OptionProbability
26
22
18
18
18