Open Platform News

Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?

Feb 3, 10:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

338295

OptionProbability

The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Mandalorian and Grogu

Michael

Resident Evil

Scary Movie 6

Scream 7

Project Hail Mary

Backrooms

Jumanji Open Would

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Dune: Messiah

Scr

Mort

Hexed

The Great Beyond

Werwulf

Focker-in-Law

Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol

The Cat in the Hat

Godzilla Minus Zero

Verity

Street Fighter

The Odyssey

GOAT

Disclosure Day

The End of Oak Street

Forgotten Island

Insidious: The Bleeding World

Mortal Kombat II

Wuthering Heights

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)

Digger

Masters of the Universe

The Social Reckoning

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Animal Friends

Dog Stars

Remain

Moana (live action)

Supergirl

Hoppers

Practical Magic 2

100

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Apr 5, 9:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

515670

OptionProbability

Manifold

Metaculus

Kalshi

Good Judgment Open

Polymarket

PredictIt

Insight Prediction

Fox News' America Predicts

Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?

Dec 1, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.31%chance

343656

OptionVotes

YES

1591

628

Will Unreal Engine gain official WebGPU export support before Jan 1st 2027?

Jul 2, 7:12 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.24%chance

172838

OptionVotes

YES

3070

137

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

2032

492

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Oct 11, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.93%chance

9910

OptionVotes

YES

1494

669

Which Party Will Win Argentina’s 2027 Election?

Sep 6, 12:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6397

OptionProbability

La Libertad Avanza

Peronist

FIT-U

Other

PRO

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

YES

1091

949

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

174

Outcome of Threads Joining the Fediverse

Jul 14, 6:49 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

681

OptionProbability

Other

A portion of Fediverse nodes block Threads, either a portion of a particular type of platform such as Mastodon, or certain types of platforms become open to Threads, just on their own, with little intervention from Threads, it just happens

Meta starts funding Fediverse nodes and maintainers via grants, pays to maintain servers in exchange for not blocking Threads/Meta.

Complete, all-out pitch battle in which large portion of Fediverse protocols and nodes absolutely unify against blocking Threads and anything that smells of Meta.

Threads users complain about unsavory Fediverse content leaking in. Non-Threads content is ultimately blocked for most practical purposes, and the integration feature atrophies.

There’s more of a virtue signaling about blocking Threads across the Fediverse, but little actual action. The actual cost of Fediverse users actually preventing Threads from engaging in nodes just far outweighs the perceived threat.

Meta does like spoofing users which are actually just straight up Meta bots that crawl nodes and hoovering up user data. They use their high end programming resources to just crush any resistance through subterfuge.

Meta Entryism, they pay users, influencers, prominent individuals, either above board or below or both, to constantly post propaganda bout how Meta is a changed man and anyone who is against them is against the Fediverse and anything it sta

Meta elite or academic capture strategy. Meta ups their lobbying and sponsorship of thought organizations, including NPR, Universities, etc. Being pro-Fediverse without Meta’s help becomes seen as either potentially pro-pedophelia, ...

Will a TikTok-native artist exhibit at Documenta 16 (2027)?

Feb 17, 12:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

Jul 28, 9:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.48%chance

551

OptionVotes

YES

1026

963

Open Platform News

Prediction markets for Open Platform

Prediction markets for Open Platform

Prediction markets for Open Platform

Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028?

Will Unreal Engine gain official WebGPU export support before Jan 1st 2027?

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030?

Which Party Will Win Argentina’s 2027 Election?

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Outcome of Threads Joining the Fediverse

Will a TikTok-native artist exhibit at Documenta 16 (2027)?

Will Geert Wilders remain the sole registered member of the PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid) until EOY 2035?

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