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Prediction markets for Open Source Initiative

US or Israel Strike Yemen by…?

Feb 28, 7:55 PMMar 29, 11:59 PM

1210067

OptionProbability

March 31

March 2

March 3

March 4

March 7

March 14

11

0

0

0

0

0

[Polymarket] What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Dec 17, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

254311

OptionProbability

$X

$STAR

$SPAX

$SX

$SEX

$MARS

$SPACE

Other

$SPC

58

13

10

5

4

4

2

2

1

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Nov 26, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23584

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

Jan-Feb 2026

27

21

21

16

13

1

1

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30?

Mar 11, 11:42 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

22.28%chance

241245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

54

Will the US try to capture or blockade kharg island before end of March?

Mar 13, 9:45 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

15836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.43%chance

6662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1662

602

Will "Open sourcing a browser extension that shows ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 6:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

3350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.81%chance

10268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

905

Will the VIPER Rover land on the Moon by 2030?

Jul 15, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.11%chance

6201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

983

Will "Alignment Faking Revisited: Improved Classifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 1, 6:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.58%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

995

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

241

OptionProbability

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

On or Before April 30, 2026

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

56

16

16

13

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

140

OptionProbability

Other

1/2026

4/2025

3/2025

49

27

14

11

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