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Prediction markets for Open Source Initiative

Will Ghent fire Nathan Cofnas before 2028?

Aug 20, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.59%chance

3715489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

586

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

85.28%chance

103909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2407

415

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.24%chance

131830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

555

Will Russia introduce exit visas by the end of 2026

Jul 12, 8:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.95%chance

81108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1922

849

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before Jan 20, 2031

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.41%chance

14649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1478

677

Will "Open sourcing a browser extension that shows ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 6:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.18%chance

3452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

978

Pope Francis considered for canonization by 2030?

May 9, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.48%chance

15431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will the VIPER Rover land on the Moon by 2030?

Jul 15, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.31%chance

6221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

997

Will Ulf Kristersson form a government as a result of the 2026 Elections?

Sep 28, 5:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

9213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will the Midjourney Scanner be higher quality than an MRI?

Jun 18, 3:19 PMDec 31, 4:17 PM

22%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will "Alignment Faking Revisited: Improved Classifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 1, 6:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.58%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

995

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

36

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