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Prediction markets for Open Source Initiative

When will TPUs be on InferenceMAX?

Nov 26, 10:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23584

OptionProbability

Mar-Apr 2026

May-Jun 2026

Jul-Aug 2026

Sep-Oct 2026

Nov-Dec 2026

Dec 2025

Jan-Feb 2026

27

21

21

16

13

1

1

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.54%chance

121326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

543

When will Free Our Feeds reach 30 million in donations?

Jan 17, 7:42 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

3991

OptionProbability

Never

Later

2027

2028

2029

February 2025

March 2025

April 2025

May 2025

Second half of 2025

2026

January 2025

51

37

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

🇸🇾 Syria signs Abraham Accords by the end of Trump's term?

Jul 3, 7:23 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

21%chance

13666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.43%chance

6662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1662

602

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.6%chance

13470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will "Open sourcing a browser extension that shows ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 6:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.18%chance

3452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

978

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2166

OptionProbability

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

On or Before April 30, 2026

72

13

11

3

Will the Midjourney Scanner be higher quality than an MRI?

Jun 18, 3:19 PMDec 31, 4:17 PM

22%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will "Alignment Faking Revisited: Improved Classifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 1, 6:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.58%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

995

Will Panic open source of Playdate SDK in 2026?

Dec 14, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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