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Prediction markets for Open Source Initiative

Will Ghent fire Nathan Cofnas before 2028?

Aug 20, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

3714974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2220

450

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.45%chance

131334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2153

542

Minneapolis Green Line Extension opens in 2027?

Oct 27, 3:30 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

73.78%chance

7677

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1677

596

Will Russia introduce exit visas by the end of 2026

Jul 12, 8:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.88%chance

6676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1522

900

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

Will "Open sourcing a browser extension that shows ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 25, 6:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.18%chance

3452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

978

Pope Francis considered for canonization by 2030?

May 9, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.48%chance

15431

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Will the VIPER Rover land on the Moon by 2030?

Jul 15, 4:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.11%chance

6201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

983

Will the Midjourney Scanner be higher quality than an MRI?

Jun 18, 3:19 PMDec 31, 4:17 PM

22%chance

6157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will "Alignment Faking Revisited: Improved Classifi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 1, 6:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.58%chance

253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1031

995

Global media opinion of Obama will improve from EOY 2023 to mid year 2027, according to OpenAI's best LLM

Dec 18, 9:57 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

66.12%chance

435

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

36

Will Panic open source of Playdate SDK in 2026?

Dec 14, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

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