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Prediction markets for Open Source Observer

What explains Extended Red Emission?

Nov 6, 10:17 PMNov 7, 10:05 PM

2135

OptionProbability

Charged PAH dimers ([PAH2]+)

Photoluminescence by hydrogenated amorphous carbon (HAC)

Aromatic carbon structures with heteroatoms

Porous silicon and nanocrystalline silicon

Amorphous hydrogenated silicon carbide

Natural coal or coal-like materials

50

20

20

20

20

15

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

3111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

73

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

63

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

60.53%chance

371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.65%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

98

Will AMD MI300+ series ship ≥$10B in revenue in calendar year 2026?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

45.55%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will combined CoreWeave+Lambda+Crusoe 2026 revenue exceed $10B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

55%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will any frontier-class model training run be announced with >$1B total compute cost before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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