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Prediction markets for Open Space

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will top open-weight LLMs in 2025 reason opaquely?

Dec 11, 6:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.16%chance

271808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

564

In 2025, will I teach people that Projective Geometric Algebra (PGA)'s "dual" is similar to the Fourier transform?

Sep 20, 7:52 AMDec 1, 11:59 PM

45.54%chance

191347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

420

Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)

Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

29.8%chance

9958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

651

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1124

534

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

Sep 29, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

46.35%chance

25776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

753

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

63.64%chance

26690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

925

U.S. Legal, Coinbase owned Prediction Market by 2026?

Aug 1, 11:15 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

65.43%chance

6418

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1376

727

Infectious disease outbreak at CECOT by end-of-year?

Apr 18, 6:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.85%chance

5180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

848

Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?

Jan 15, 7:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

47.67%chance

2152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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