Open World News

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

40.25%chance

12456216

OptionVotes

YES

1131

706

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

Mar 9, 9:51 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

57.26%chance

619612

OptionVotes

YES

2280

544

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

1792

1322

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Jan 17, 4:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423106

OptionProbability

a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

Humanity spread out over independent space colonies.

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Jul 11, 7:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

70.19%chance

141281

OptionVotes

YES

1206

848

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 7:54 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

68.44%chance

20727

OptionVotes

YES

1110

631

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Oct 30, 3:45 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

44.3%chance

7450

OptionVotes

YES

1121

892

Will Nintendo release an open world Legend of Zelda-related game made specifically for VR by the end of 2030?

Nov 28, 12:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

15.34%chance

13338

OptionVotes

YES

1151

955

Will an Irregular Opening be played in at least one game of the World Chess Championship 2026?

Dec 19, 4:36 PMDec 19, 4:36 PM

24.89%chance

6153

OptionVotes

YES

174

Will there be 2000 or more Five Guys locations open worldwide on Jan 1st 2029?

Dec 2, 8:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.16%chance

10103

OptionVotes

YES

284

158

In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world?

Feb 22, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

431

OptionVotes

YES

141

Will Open Phil officially follow worldview diversification in 2027?

Nov 5, 7:47 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

62.83%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

Open World News

Prediction markets for Open World

Prediction markets for Open World

Prediction markets for Open World

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Carbon Brief Forecast: If Trump wins, will annual US CO2 emissions be below 4.5 billion tons in 2030?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Will Nintendo release an open world Legend of Zelda-related game made specifically for VR by the end of 2030?

Will an Irregular Opening be played in at least one game of the World Chess Championship 2026?

Will there be 2000 or more Five Guys locations open worldwide on Jan 1st 2029?

In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world?

Will Open Phil officially follow worldview diversification in 2027?

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