Open World News

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.95%chance

12858706

OptionVotes

YES

989

972

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

92.73%chance

6513602

OptionVotes

YES

17398

9289

Which movies will earn more than $250M at the 2026 US Box Office?

Feb 18, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

284526

OptionProbability

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Project Hail Mary

Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)

Spiderman Brand New Day

Toy Story 5

The Mandalorian and Grogu

The Odyssey

Moana (live action)

Michael

Dune: Messiah

Avengers: Doomsday

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Supergirl

Disclosure Day

Jumanji Open World

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Hexed

Hoppers

100

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Jan 17, 4:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

423106

OptionProbability

a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

Humanity spread out over independent space colonies.

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Oct 30, 3:45 PMJun 14, 10:59 PM

61.82%chance

132027

OptionVotes

YES

1273

786

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Jul 11, 7:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

70.19%chance

141281

OptionVotes

YES

1206

848

Will Nintendo release an open world Legend of Zelda-related game made specifically for VR by the end of 2030?

Nov 28, 12:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

15.34%chance

13338

OptionVotes

YES

1151

955

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Mar 10, 8:36 PMMar 10, 8:36 PM

3260

OptionProbability

Headcount exceeds 150 employees by Dec 31, 2026

AMI goes public by Dec 31, 2030, through IPO, SPAC, RTO, or any other mechanism on any exchange

Announces revenue partnership beyond Nabla by Sep 30, 2026

Raises next funding round above $5B valuation by Mar 31, 2027

Releases open-source world model code by Dec 31, 2026

Will an Irregular Opening be played in at least one game of the World Chess Championship 2026?

Dec 19, 4:36 PMDec 19, 4:36 PM

24.89%chance

6153

OptionVotes

YES

174

Will there be 2000 or more Five Guys locations open worldwide on Jan 1st 2029?

Dec 2, 8:03 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.16%chance

10103

OptionVotes

YES

284

158

In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world?

Feb 22, 2:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

431

OptionVotes

YES

141

Will Open Phil officially follow worldview diversification in 2027?

Nov 5, 7:47 PMNov 9, 11:59 PM

62.83%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

Open World News

Prediction markets for Open World

Prediction markets for Open World

Prediction markets for Open World

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Which movies will earn more than $250M at the 2026 US Box Office?

Why did we survive AI until 2100?

Will at least 2 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup host nations win their opening group stage match?

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Will Nintendo release an open world Legend of Zelda-related game made specifically for VR by the end of 2030?

Yann LeCun's AMI (props)

Will an Irregular Opening be played in at least one game of the World Chess Championship 2026?

Will there be 2000 or more Five Guys locations open worldwide on Jan 1st 2029?

In Esurient, will Lyvina at some point crack open the world?

Will Open Phil officially follow worldview diversification in 2027?

Latest stories