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Prediction markets for OpenAI Startup Fund

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.15%chance

8314198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6271

1868

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Is Anthropic's "Confidential Investor" Elon Musk?

Apr 11, 2:03 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8.4%chance

181106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

882

Open ia fait faillite avant la fin de l’année ?

Mar 27, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.28%chance

6549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Which of these AI companies will shut down first?

Nov 3, 2:52 PMDec 31, 2:48 PM

562

OptionProbability

Perplexity

xAI

Other

OpenAI

Anthropic

38

28

19

7

7

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