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OpenAI Superalignment News
Prediction markets for OpenAI Superalignment
Prediction markets for OpenAI Superalignment
Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
Jul 5, 9:39 PM
Jul 5, 9:59 PM
4%
chance
69
36642
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3564
752
Will Jan Leike still be leading Superalignment in 4 years?
Jul 6, 5:20 AM
Jul 8, 3:59 AM
1.03%
chance
23
6654
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3801
754
Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?
Nov 4, 12:16 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
25.98%
chance
25
1693
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1415
789
Will Superalignment succeed, according to a majority of Eliezer, Nate, Paul, John, David.
Oct 28, 5:50 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
3.57%
chance
7
1249
Option
Votes
YES
NO
399
44
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
39.1%
chance
10
950
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1248
801
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