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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Citizen Kane
Schindler's List
The Godfather
Casablanca
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
The Shawshank Redemption
Gone with the Wind
The Wizard of Oz
City Lights
The Sound of Music
West Side Story
Lawrence of Arabia
Bridge on the River Kwai
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
It Happened One Night
The Graduate
To Kill a Mockingbird
All About Eve
The Maltese Falcon
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Dr Strangelove
Jaws
Star Wars
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Some Like it Hot
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
Apocalypse Now
Godfather Part II
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
A Streetcar Named Desire
Rear Window
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Rocky
The Gold Rush
Sullivan's Travels
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
Chinatown
High Noon
Intolerance
Nashville
Shane
Duck Soup
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
The Searchers
Saving Private Ryan
A Clockwork Orange
Cabaret
Tootsie
Do The Right Thing
American Graffiti
Pulp Fiction
12 Angry Men
Platoon
Silence of the Lambs
Titanic
The Sixth Sense
Goodfellas
Toy Story
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
In the Heat of the Night
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
Spartacus
A Night at the Opera
Swing Time
Sophie's Choice
The Last Picture Show
The Best Years of our Lives
All the President's Men
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Easy Rider
Bringing Up Baby
Yankee Doodle Dandy
The Apartment
Forrest Gump
Blade Runner
Ben-Hur
The French Connection
97
97
96
96
96
96
96
96
95
95
94
94
94
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
92
91
91
91
91
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90
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90
90
89
88
88
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88
87
87
87
87
86
86
86
85
84
81
80
80
80
78
78
77
76
74
74
74
74
74
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
65
65
65
65
65
65
63
57
56
56
47
OptionProbability
Fedez e Masini - Male necessario
Tommaso Paradiso - I romantici
Arisa - Magica favola -
Chiello - Ti penso sempre
Eddie Brock - Avvoltoi
Enrico Nigiotti - Ogni volta che non so volare
Ermal Meta - Stella stellina
Francesco Renga - Il meglio di me
Fulminacci - Stupida sfortuna
Leo Gassmann - Naturale
Levante - Sei tu
Luchè - Labirinto
Malika Ayane - Animali notturni
Mara Sattei - Le cose che non sai di me
Maria Antonietta e Colombre - La felicità e basta
Michele Bravi - Prima o poi
Nayt - Prima che
Sal Da Vinci - Per sempre sì
Sayf - Tu mi piaci tanto
Serena Brancale - Qui con me
Tredici Pietro - Uomo che cade
Dargen D'Amico - Ai ai
Bambole di pezza - Resta con me
Ditonellapiaga - Che fastidio!
Elettra Lamborghini - Voilà
J-Ax - Italia Starter Pack
LDA e AKA 7even - Poesie clandestine
Patty Pravo - Opera
Raf - Ora e per sempre
Samurai Jay - Ossessione
15
12
10
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
High Noon
The Gold Rush
Sophie's Choice
Goodfellas
The French Connection
Pulp Fiction
The Last Picture Show
Do The Right Thing
Blade Runner
Yankee Doodle Dandy
Toy Story
Ben-Hur
The General
On The Waterfront
It's a Wonderful Life
Chinatown
The Grapes of Wrath
ET the Extra Terrestrial
To Kill a Mockingbird
Mr Smith Goes to Washington
Double Indemnity
The Maltese Falcon
Godfather Part II
One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (original animated)
Annie Hall
Bridge on the River Kwai
The Best Years of our Lives
Treasure of the Sierra Madre
The Sound of Music
King Kong (original)
Bonnie and Clyde
Midnight Cowboy
The Philadelphia Story
Shane
It Happened One Night
A Streetcar Named Desier
Rear Window
Intolerance
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
West Side Story
Taxi Driver
The Deer Hunter
M*A*S*H*
North by Northwest
Jaws
Rocky
Nashville
Duck Soup
Sullivan's Travels
American Graffiti
Cabaret
Network
The African Queen
Raiders of the Lost Ark
Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf
Unforgiven
Tootsie
A Clockwork Orange
Saving Private Ryan
The Shawshank Redemption
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
Silence of the Lambs
In the Heat of the Night
Forrest Gump
All the President's Men
Modern Times
The Wild Bunch
The Apartment
Spartacus
Sunrise: A Song of Two Humans
Titanic
Easy Rider
A Night at the Opera
Platoon
12 Angry Men
Bringing Up Baby
The Sixth Sense
Swing Tie
Raging Bull
Singin in the Rain
Vertigo
City Lights
The Searchers
Psycho
2001 A Space Odyssey
Sunset Boulevard
The Graduate
Dr Strangelove
Some Like it Hot
Schindler's List
The Wizard of Oz
Apocalypse Now
Star Wars
All About Eve
Lawrence of Arabia
Gone with the Wind
Casablanca
The Godfather
Citizen Kane
66
62
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
56
50
50
50
50
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38
34
34
34
33
32
28
27
25
19
16
OptionProbability
2027
2026
2028
2029
2030, later, or never
2025
47
25
10
9
7
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
236
126
OptionVotes
NO
YES
354
264