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Prediction markets for Operating
By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?
Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM
50235659
OptionProbability
99
98
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?
May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
140175462
OptionProbability
70
14
4
3
3
3
1
1
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
43.54%chance
218117028
OptionVotes
12490
3787
Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?
Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
29.18%chance
8611268
OptionVotes
1816
965
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.26%chance
2411233
OptionVotes
11928
1118
OptionVotes
2222
1191
Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Feb 3, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.9%chance
499618
OptionVotes
3016
332
OptionVotes
3076
79
Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
Jan 3, 7:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.23%chance
304131
OptionVotes
1311
763
Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by
Apr 7, 1:26 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM
63.14%chance
34092
OptionVotes
14090
6464
If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?
Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
52.83%chance
181437
OptionVotes
1093
868
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20