Operational Technology News

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.73%chance

162887

OptionVotes

YES

2083

480

9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

21.67%chance

302549

OptionVotes

YES

1901

526

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

10867

9202

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jun 10, 12:18 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.77%chance

541909

OptionVotes

YES

1141

1067

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

1726

368

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

25.25%chance

17944

OptionVotes

YES

1016

905

Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 16, 2:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

75.98%chance

13491

OptionVotes

YES

1350

844

Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Jul 1, 5:10 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.43%chance

12429

OptionVotes

YES

1176

910

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.68%chance

4355

OptionVotes

YES

1353

739

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

41.37%chance

13260

OptionVotes

YES

1048

922

Quantum computer based in organic chemistry is created by 2050

Jun 8, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

10186

OptionVotes

YES

1071

947

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

Feb 12, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13110

OptionProbability

Expand his political influence and connections in general

Remove regulations that affect his business interests

Strategic business opportunities through policy influence

Build a public profile as a government reformer

Reduce government bureaucracy and spending

Drive technological innovation in government operations

Target a specific person or a group of just a few people he dislikes

Promote his business interests with additional enforcement efforts rather than just reductions

Personal entertainment and meme culture participation

Support and promote Dogecoin cryptocurrency

Operational Technology News

Prediction markets for Operational Technology

Prediction markets for Operational Technology

Prediction markets for Operational Technology

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Will Qatar bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Will CNSA's Chang'e 8 mission successfully land on the moon?

Will Ukraine bring a sixth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Will complex atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Quantum computer based in organic chemistry is created by 2050

What is Elon's Motivation for Participating in DOGE?

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