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By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

37140376

OptionProbability

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-01-01

Flight 11

Flight 10

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

95

80

68

19

2

0

0

0

0

0

In what year will Tesla's robotaxi become commercially operational in the US?

May 27, 4:25 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10695201

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

Other

2029

2030

2024

64

20

5

3

3

2

2

1

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.5%chance

5715897

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12925

9373

Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?

Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5.26%chance

2411233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11928

1118

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

8610738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

879

Will a space hotel be operational before 2035?

Nov 7, 8:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.59%chance

9310579

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2285

1105

Will a non-Windows, non-Unix-like operating system capture greater than 3% market share by 2033?

Sep 1, 6:40 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.93%chance

723463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

1187

Will Microsoft have at least one data center (partially) powered by a self-operated fission reactor before 2030?

Dec 15, 9:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.74%chance

221693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1726

368

Will a reactionless drive be conclusively demonstrated operational in space before 2100?

Sep 9, 7:17 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55.54%chance

191544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1347

258

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Jun 22, 3:16 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.37%chance

171427

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

858

Will Russia and China have an operational nuclear power plant on the moon by EOY 2040?

Mar 6, 1:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.08%chance

251348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

900

Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?

Sep 24, 2:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

54.17%chance

14587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1481

675

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