Opinion Labs News

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Jun 14, 4:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

87.08%chance

5012445

OptionVotes

YES

2596

385

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

2438

1224

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Mar 15, 9:40 PMMar 16, 6:59 AM

204387

OptionProbability

Alina Chan

Saar Wilf

Yuri Deigin

Joscha Bach

Zeynep Tufecki

Jesse Bloom

Sam Harris

Nate Silver

Richard Hanania

Ralph Baric

Zvi Mowshowitz

Matt Yglesias

Scott Aaronson

Philipp Markolin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Michael Worobey

Kristian Andersen

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

Nov 20, 2:07 AMMay 20, 12:50 AM

6.27%chance

103934

OptionVotes

YES

3866

259

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Dec 25, 7:05 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143479

OptionProbability

L: Elon Musk comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

T5: LLM gives <=50% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T3: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T2: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2025

B: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, drops down to <=70% confidence from today's "85-95%" confident, by mid 2025

T4: LLM gives <=60% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2026

T6: LLM gives <=40% estimate of "Zoonotic Origin" [72% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

T7: LLM gives >=20% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Unmodified, Collected Virus" [12.5% at EOY 2023] by mid 2029

Proof that most large cities in China have labs working on coronaviruses comparable to Wuhan, a claim alleged by the Wikipedia article, but not backed up with references, by mid 2024

T1: LLM gives >=10% estimate of "Accidental Lab Leak of Modified Virus" [7% at EOY 2023] by mid 2024

E3: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2028

O: Intermediate Host Identification of an animal bridging the gap from bats to humans, by mid 2029

H: Any type of information leak from Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

D2: Fauci passes away by mid 2029

V: Within 1 year of Xi Jingping's death, China's position on Covid origins shifts significantly, as judged by LLM [subjective]

S2: Disclosure by any means of significant parts of the virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

Q: WHO researchers are allowed into WIV and have unfettered access by mid 2026

N: An earlier center of Covid-19 outbreak is discovered, far away from Wuhan, weakening lab-leak theory by mid 2028

C: Wikipedia page "Covid-19 lab leak theory", in LLM judgment, softens to <=50% confidence, mid year 2025 (see B)

U: Any type of release of significant staff health records of WIV by mid 2029

W: Within 1 year of Fauci's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

X: Within 1 year of Biden's death, US gov't position on Covid origins shifts significantly (subjective)

R: Large document leak from WIV of any type, mentioned in major western media, or publicly available, by mid 2026

S1: Intentional release of the entire virus database from WIV with approx 22k unreported bat and rodent viral samples and genomes, by mid 2026

E2: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2026

J: Identification of an animal reservoir for Covid-19 nearby Wuhan by mid 2027

M: Zhi Shengli disappears by mid 2028

I: News of a defection from someone significant who worked at Wuhan Institute of Virology by mid 2026

P: Discovery of an animal precursor to Covid-19 [actually finding a living animal with the virus in it, plausibly back-dateable to the time before the outbreak], by mid 2026

G: Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus comes out for lab leak by mid 2026

D3: Fauci passes away due to Covid

A: Wikipedia page "SARS-CoV2-2" no longer clearly states it's of zoonotic origin, by mid 2025

D1: Fauci passes away by mid 2025

E1: Trump publicly comes out for lab leak, by mid 2024

F: Obama or either Clinton comes out for lab leak by mid 2024

K: Bill Gates comes out for lab leak by mid 2025

100

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?

Sep 25, 12:20 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.62%chance

232034

OptionVotes

YES

1341

941

In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?

Mar 30, 2:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12583

OptionProbability

Helped with >60% confidence

Uncertain

Helped with >80% confidence

Harmed with >80% confidence

Harmed with >60% confidence

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

YES

1081

928

Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak?

Apr 3, 3:03 AMApr 3, 6:59 AM

13.89%chance

10311

OptionVotes

YES

531

150

TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"

Dec 16, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.1%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

113

Opinion Labs News

Prediction markets for Opinion Labs

Prediction markets for Opinion Labs

Prediction markets for Opinion Labs

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?

Is Intology's Locus really better than humans at AI R&D?

Covid Origins MegaMarket - lots of unlinked binary questions about the steps on the way, varying lengths

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030?

In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Was the 2021 Ebola outbreak caused by a lab leak?

TRUE or FALSE: "The US government has ruled that COVID-19 most likely came from a Lab Leak"

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