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Prediction markets for Opportunities

Largest party in the next New Zealand general election?

Sep 17, 5:51 AMDec 19, 10:59 AM

189307

OptionProbability

Labour Party

National Party

New Zealand First Party

Green Party

ACT Party

Te Pāti Māori

The Opportunities Party

57

41

1

0

0

0

0

After the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?

Aug 22, 12:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

234806

OptionProbability

National

NZ First

ACT

Labour

Greens

Te Pāti Māori

Opportunities (TOP)

NewZeal

Legalise Cannabis

New Conservative

55

50

49

43

41

26

7

2

2

2

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

90.88%chance

774122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3322

444

The Opportunities Party (TOP) will be represented in what upcoming New Zealand parliamentary sessions?

Jul 15, 6:19 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

32484

OptionProbability

55th parliament

57th parliament

58th parliament

59th parliament

60th parliament

56th parliament

21

20

20

20

20

12

The Opportunities Party elected in 2026 New Zealand election?

Jun 17, 5:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.59%chance

101209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

261108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

931

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

20.06%chance

2875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1334

101

Will Te Pati Maori or Opportunity Party poll at 5.00% or more for the 2026 NZ election?

Jan 29, 2:06 AMNov 25, 2:06 AM

3583

OptionProbability

Opportunity Party polls at 5.00% or more in 3 or more polls?

Te Pati Maori polls at 5.00% or more in 3 or more polls?

20

14

Fixed Income Mana Investment Opportunity!!!!

Apr 26, 9:37 AMApr 27, 6:59 AM

6541

OptionProbability

NO

YES

133

66

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5106

OptionProbability

It lacked the means

It lacked the motive

It lacked the opportunity

56

36

7

Will "Customer Satisfaction Opportunities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Recommend physics opportunities for young high schoolers

Dec 19, 5:47 PM

00

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