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Prediction markets for Opportunities

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

86.63%chance

825173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2598

534

Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election?

Jun 4, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.18%chance

293531

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1810

760

The Opportunities Party (TOP) will be represented in what upcoming New Zealand parliamentary sessions?

Jul 15, 6:19 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

53148

OptionProbability

55th parliament

56th parliament

57th parliament

58th parliament

59th parliament

60th parliament

82

54

30

28

26

25

Will Te Pati Maori or Opportunity Party poll at 5.00% or more for the 2026 NZ election?

Jan 29, 2:06 AMNov 25, 2:06 AM

52254

OptionProbability

Opportunity Party polls at 5.00% or more in 3 or more polls?

Te Pati Maori polls at 5.00% or more in 3 or more polls?

100

6

Will Opportunity party get 9.000% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ general election?

Sep 4, 3:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.38%chance

52116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2544

393

Will The Opportunities Party get a higher party vote percent than any of ACT, NZ First or greens?

Sep 1, 9:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.16%chance

61632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

987

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

9.44%chance

31175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

51

Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

261108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

931

Fixed Income Mana Investment Opportunity!!!!

Apr 26, 9:37 AMApr 27, 6:59 AM

6541

OptionProbability

NO

YES

133

66

Will I find AI hurts my job opportunities as an accountant before 2030?

Aug 25, 2:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81%chance

8178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

206

48

If AI doesn't destroy the world, will it be primarily because it lacked the means, motive, or opportunity?

Sep 9, 3:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5106

OptionProbability

It lacked the means

It lacked the motive

It lacked the opportunity

56

36

7

Will "Customer Satisfaction Opportunities" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 18, 12:00 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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