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Prediction markets for Opportunity Fund

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

1910007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7878

2845

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.37%chance

147824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8098

2220

What will Anthropic's initial share price be? (split-anchored Feb 27 2026)

Feb 15, 8:05 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

96375

OptionProbability

Above $500

Below $100

$100 - $149

$150 - $199

$200 - $249

$250 - $299

$300 - $349

$350 - $399

$400 - $449

$450 - $500

99

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

9.44%chance

31175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

51

How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2025?

Aug 20, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6959

OptionProbability

350-400m

300-350m

400-450m

450-500m

200-250m

250-300m

150-200m

500-550m

550-600m

More than 600m

Less than 150m

30

20

14

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

2

Will Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) direct ≥$1.5B in grants in 2026?

Jul 21, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.46%chance

11431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

32

Will GiveWell approve ≥$800M in grants in its 2026 grant year (Feb 2026–Jan 2027)?

Jul 21, 2:27 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

4201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.06%chance

9153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

167

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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