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Prediction markets for Opportunity Fund

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Jul 10, 11:28 PMSep 1, 11:09 PM

203027

OptionProbability

University of Illinois (note: i live in town and my dad is a professor)

UW Madison

University of Michigan

Williams college (new addition!)

Rice university (new addition)

University of Southern California

Harvey mudd college

Northwestern (new addition!)

UCLA

Cornell (new addition!)

Carnegie Mellon University

University of chicago

Stanford

MIT (new addition!)

Princeton

86

81

65

50

46

45

42

41

37

25

24

15

15

14

11

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Do you trust Leo Guinan?

Oct 9, 11:50 AMDec 31, 12:48 PM

10.47%chance

112567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

20.06%chance

2875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

742

How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2025?

Aug 20, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4580

OptionProbability

350-400m

300-350m

400-450m

250-300m

200-250m

450-500m

500-550m

550-600m

More than 600m

150-200m

Less than 150m

28

24

9

7

6

5

5

5

5

4

3

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will GiveWell fund Community salt substitution by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.52%chance

8143

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

171

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Arb bots for confident markets

Nov 18, 10:48 PM

00

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