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Prediction markets for Opps

If Elon Musk does something as a result of his AI angst by 2025, will Eliezer Yudkowsky judge it to be a positive or neutral initiative (as opposed to negative)?

Feb 26, 6:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.08%chance

17469866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12402

3129

Will Donald Trump arrest his political opponents?

Dec 17, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

9212959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1410

453

Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?

Dec 26, 10:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

83.48%chance

743078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2254

594

Will Reform be the official opposition after the next UK election?

Aug 13, 11:58 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

17.69%chance

232323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2157

464

Which opp will Destiny talk to next?

May 17, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

172159

OptionProbability

Nick Fuentes

Ian Kochinski

Hasan Piker

52

34

13

Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?

Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

261108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

931

By 2026, will I regret learning a bunch of math/physics as opposed to focusing more on AI?

Jan 2, 12:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

55.73%chance

181067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

648

If elected, will President Trump succeed in jailing his opponents?

Oct 27, 7:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.35%chance

21889

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

789

Will the deadline for deferring capital gains using qualified opportunity zone funds be extended?

Aug 23, 12:31 AMSep 23, 3:59 AM

20.06%chance

2875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

742

Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030?

Jun 26, 6:46 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

38.31%chance

14656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

788

Oppenheimer vs Barbie

Jul 30, 10:10 AMDec 30, 6:29 PM

64.42%chance

14533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

956

By 2030, will any Democratic administration succeed in jailing their opponents?

Nov 8, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.5%chance

3458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

808

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