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Prediction markets for Optimus

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

1.51%chance

13349855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8316

138

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.42%chance

188643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8337

120

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.95%chance

258410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6179

317

Will an Optimus robot walk on Mars before a human?

May 11, 2:15 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71.25%chance

518376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

338

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 5:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.26%chance

196513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3869

258

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

394669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

580

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20.46%chance

253275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1418

854

How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?

Dec 24, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

361766

OptionProbability

40k - 100k

25k - 40k

>100k

<=25k

54

27

16

3

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.11%chance

23980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

883

(Musk Prediction) Will Optimus Be the World's Best Surgeon Within 3 years?

Mar 30, 2:34 AMMar 30, 2:32 AM

8.96%chance

10386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

319

31

When will Tesla have Optimus walking around in retail stores?

Dec 27, 8:44 PMJan 4, 7:59 AM

9315

OptionProbability

Never

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030

2025

71

11

6

4

4

3

1

Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?

Jan 22, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.33%chance

11150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

48

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