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Prediction markets for Optimus

Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?

Oct 13, 9:55 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

3.61%chance

10330907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5169

194

Will an Optimus robot walk on Mars before a human?

May 11, 2:15 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71.25%chance

518376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1679

338

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2.43%chance

186643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6337

158

Will there be a working Optimus robot on Mars by the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 5:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.42%chance

186463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3819

262

Will it be possible to buy Tesla Optimus humanoid robot before 2030?

Oct 5, 8:50 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45%chance

394669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1301

580

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.98%chance

203537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2737

513

What year will the 1,000,000th Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robot be built?

Sep 26, 1:58 PMDec 31, 1:29 PM

192346

OptionProbability

2030+

2028

2024-2027

2029

83

9

5

4

Will Tesla Optimus robot commit a crime before year 2028? 🦾

May 23, 2:42 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.06%chance

212342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

782

How much would the Tesla Optimus Robot cost to buy if it went into production?

Dec 24, 6:44 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

361766

OptionProbability

40k - 100k

25k - 40k

>100k

<=25k

54

27

16

3

Will robots (think Tesla’s Optimus) replace retail workers by 2030?

Jan 19, 7:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.12%chance

22979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1413

883

Will there be a million Optimus robots by 2035?

Aug 9, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

62.32%chance

14829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

78

Will Tesla sell Optimus robots to the public by the end of 2027?

Jan 22, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.43%chance

8105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

106

31

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